Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years41.3rank 26 of 197 · 3 years: 40.8
Worst case−33.2%Energy supply shock · tail −29.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−8.5rank 146 of 197 · 3 years: −7.8
Best case+10Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed14%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.16expected index points from best practice
Breadth5 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Vanuatu’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.97
Chokepoint closure S05−0.82
Global financial crisis S03−0.81
AI diffusion shock S13−0.71
Disaster in the core S10−0.68
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.62
Pandemic S14−0.61
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.53
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.49
Food and water shock S11−0.48
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.45
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.27
Mass displacement S08−0.18
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.90 | −0.97 | −1.08 | −0.49 | ▼ 2 | 24 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.87 | −0.82 | −0.91 | −0.43 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.68 | −0.81 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.6 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.68 | −0.71 | −0.80 | −0.36 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.80 | −0.68 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.52 | −0.62 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 3 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.51 | −0.61 | −0.71 | −0.32 | ▲ 3 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.49 | −0.53 | −0.60 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.44 | −0.49 | −0.55 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.44 | −0.48 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 15 | Resource Infrastructure 0.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.62 | −0.45 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.5 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.49 | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.31 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.13 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 6 | 3 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.24 | −0.39 | −0.60 | −0.60 | −1.35 | −1.60 | −1.55 | −1.36 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.31 | −0.67 | · | −0.67 | −1.44 | −0.58 | −1.16 | −1.49 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.14 | −0.42 | −0.28 | −0.86 | −0.86 | −1.08 | −1.44 | −1.23 | −0.99 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.15 | −0.44 | −0.30 | −1.21 | −0.91 | −1.25 | −1.06 | −0.58 | −0.52 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.38 | −0.31 | −1.07 | −0.48 | −1.21 | −0.64 | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.53 | −0.22 | −0.73 | −0.66 | −0.90 | −1.09 | −0.66 | −0.75 |
| Pandemic | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.22 | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.83 | −0.77 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.15 | −0.32 | −0.22 | · | −0.75 | −0.72 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −1.10 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.15 | −0.79 | −0.23 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.59 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.55 | −0.19 | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.69 | −0.32 | −0.55 | −0.63 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.13 | · | −0.54 | −0.37 | −0.86 | −1.20 | −0.99 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.15 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.37 | · | −0.75 | · | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.08 | −0.49 | −0.40 | · | −0.55 | −0.52 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.02 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Vanuatu is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+9.5
Middle East settlement S21+8.6
Energy abundance S16+7.2
Sovereign debt reset S19+3.2
100-day pandemic defence S24+0.5
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.2
Yield revolution S22−11.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−17.7
Great-power détente S18−25.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−35.6
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +9.5 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 16 | 80 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +8.6 | 10.5 | 2.0 | 18 | 88 | Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.2 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 8 | 107 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +3.2 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 22 | 96 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 3.8 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +0.5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 10 | 145 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −6.2 | 8.0 | 14.3 | 11 | 117 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −11.3 | 5.5 | 16.8 | 9 | 152 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −17.7 | 6.8 | 24.5 | 11 | 162 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −25.7 | 5.2 | 30.9 | 13 | 191 | Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −35.6 | 4.1 | 39.7 | 7 | 177 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |