Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · ERI

Eritrea

Baseline index 2.01Rank 190 of 197InceptionAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years69.6rank 6 of 197 · 3 years: 70.1
Worst case−50.4%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −47.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−12.0rank 169 of 197 · 3 years: −15.6
Best case+8Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed7%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.38expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; low real gdp per head; public debt relative to gdp; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15; little renewable water per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Eritrea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.01
Energy supply shock S09−1.01
Global financial crisis S03−0.84
Food and water shock S11−0.83
Chokepoint closure S05−0.71
Disaster in the core S10−0.67
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.65
Pandemic S14−0.64
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.63
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.62
Mass displacement S08−0.53
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.49
AI diffusion shock S13−0.45
Hybrid campaign S06−0.24
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.85−1.01−1.06−0.52▼ 211Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 1.00−1.01−1.06−0.55▼ 110Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.69−0.84−0.88−0.4308Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.73−0.83−0.92−0.42▼ 211Resource Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.69−0.71−0.77−0.35▼ 19Economic Leverage & Dependence 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.71−0.67−0.75−0.34▼ 110Energy Infrastructure 0.2 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.56−0.65−0.69−0.32▲ 19Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.50−0.64−0.70−0.32▲ 211Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.76−0.63−0.65−0.31▼ 15Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.54−0.62−0.65−0.3007Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.71−0.53−0.60−0.27▼ 29Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.67−0.49−0.53−0.2506Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.40−0.45−0.48−0.22▲ 36Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.25−0.24−0.26−0.1207Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Sovereign funding crisis−0.02−0.93−0.54−1.30−1.16−1.29−1.50−1.07−1.31
Energy supply shock−0.02−1.57−0.62−0.69−0.69−1.27−1.58−1.40−1.26
Global financial crisis−0.17−0.48−0.44−0.97−0.97−0.97−1.40−1.15−0.97
Food and water shock−0.02−0.97−0.44−1.19−1.13−1.10−0.57−0.94−1.11
Chokepoint closure−0.02−1.22−1.01·−0.55−1.06−0.47−0.91−1.13
Disaster in the core−0.02−1.41−0.42−1.04−0.47−1.07−0.63−0.47−0.47
Infrastructure collapse−0.18−1.10−0.39−0.39−0.39−0.91−0.82−0.89−0.78
Pandemic−0.18−0.38−0.31−0.91−0.80−0.81−0.80−0.78−0.78
Legitimacy crisis−0.18·−1.05−0.55−1.26−1.22−1.41··
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.18−0.38−0.34·−0.88−0.76−0.88−0.86−1.24
Mass displacement·−0.57−0.42−1.15−0.94−1.07−0.55−0.07·
Single-supplier cut-off−0.18−0.33−0.42−0.52·−0.87·−1.04−1.06
AI diffusion shock−0.18−0.28−0.25−0.74−0.57−0.69−0.66−0.36−0.32
Hybrid campaign−0.08−0.41−0.44·−0.45−0.42·−0.17−0.17

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Eritrea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+7.7
Energy abundance S16+3.6
Yield revolution S22+1.5
Middle East settlement S21+1.4
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.3
Great-power détente S18−4.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−8.2
100-day pandemic defence S24−9.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−23.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−27.1
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+7.78.00.3992Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+3.64.91.35121Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+1.56.04.5788Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+1.48.16.713130Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+0.34.84.56138Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−4.83.98.77136Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−8.26.414.69118Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−9.03.612.68187Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−23.64.528.15194Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−27.11.228.33148Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception