Zimbabwe · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years30.6rank 53 of 197 · 3 years: 31.3

Worst case−25.2%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −22.2%

Opportunity · 10 years−0.9rank 88 of 197 · 3 years: −3.0

Best case+17Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.23expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; consumer price inflation; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; remittances relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Zimbabwe’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.09

Energy supply shock S09−1.02

Food and water shock S11−0.78

Global financial crisis S03−0.77

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.69

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.69

Chokepoint closure S05−0.65

Pandemic S14−0.58

AI diffusion shock S13−0.57

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.55

Disaster in the core S10−0.46

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37

Mass displacement S08−0.29

Hybrid campaign S06−0.16

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.88	−1.09	−1.25	−0.56	▼ 6	21	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.96	−1.02	−1.22	−0.54	▼ 6	19	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.74	−0.78	−0.97	−0.42	▼ 5	15	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3.2 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.59	−0.77	−0.88	−0.39	▲ 1	19	Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2.1 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.85	−0.69	−0.85	−0.38	▼ 1	13	Monetary & Currency Capability 0.9 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.58	−0.69	−0.81	−0.36	▲ 4	14	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.67	−0.65	−0.77	−0.34	▼ 1	11	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.46	−0.58	−0.70	−0.31	▲ 5	12	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.5 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.52	−0.57	−0.69	−0.31	▲ 1	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.70	−0.55	−0.66	−0.30	0	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.54	−0.46	−0.59	−0.26	▲ 1	10	Energy Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.32	−0.37	−0.44	−0.20	▲ 4	6	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.42	−0.29	−0.37	−0.16	0	9	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.18	−0.16	−0.19	−0.09	▲ 1	4	Maritime Power 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.11	−0.92	−0.48	−1.27	−1.15	−1.58	−1.86	−1.15	−1.31
Energy supply shock	−0.18	−1.45	−0.51	−0.60	−0.60	−1.36	−1.61	−1.55	−1.38
Food and water shock	−0.09	−0.89	−0.38	−1.08	−1.03	−1.11	−0.52	−0.89	−1.01
Global financial crisis	−0.37	−0.39	−0.33	−0.77	−0.77	−0.97	−1.29	−1.11	−0.88
Legitimacy crisis	−0.49	·	−0.95	−0.52	−1.20	−1.68	−1.38	·	·
Infrastructure collapse	−0.75	−1.03	−0.35	−0.37	−0.37	−0.92	−0.85	−0.84	−0.73
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.10	−0.79	·	−0.49	−1.06	−0.42	−0.85	−1.09
Pandemic	−0.59	−0.31	−0.25	−0.76	−0.66	−0.71	−0.66	−0.65	−0.65
AI diffusion shock	−0.65	−0.32	−0.28	−0.85	−0.63	−0.87	−0.74	−0.41	−0.36
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.91	−0.30	−0.37	−0.47	·	−0.96	·	−0.98	−0.98
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.96	−0.28	−0.71	−0.32	−0.80	−0.43	−0.32	−0.32
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.44	−0.20	−0.18	·	−0.47	−0.45	−0.47	−0.46	−0.69
Mass displacement	·	−0.30	−0.22	−0.61	−0.50	−0.69	−0.29	−0.04	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.12	−0.27	−0.27	·	−0.30	−0.28	·	−0.11	−0.11

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Zimbabwe is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+16.7

Energy abundance S16+13.9

Sovereign debt reset S19+13.7

Yield revolution S22+10.7

Middle East settlement S21+7.4

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+5.1

Great-power détente S18+0.1

100-day pandemic defence S24−3.1

Digital state leapfrog S23−7.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15−28.1

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+16.7	21.7	5.0	26	37	Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+13.9	15.1	1.2	17	77	Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+13.7	17.5	3.8	24	19	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.3 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+10.7	14.6	3.9	19	28	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+7.4	13.3	5.9	25	94	Alliances & Security Cooperation 4.5 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+5.1	16.1	11.0	20	60	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+0.1	7.5	7.4	23	111	Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−3.1	7.6	10.8	19	159	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−7.0	15.1	22.1	17	123	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−28.1	4.9	33.0	12	154	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception