Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years9.2rank 155 of 197 · 3 years: 8.2
Worst case−9.5%Infrastructure collapse · tail −8.0%
Opportunity · 10 years+4.4rank 68 of 197 · 3 years: +6.5
Best case+25100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed36%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.53expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; consumer price inflation; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Argentina’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.88
Pandemic S14−0.69
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.66
Global financial crisis S03−0.57
AI diffusion shock S13−0.57
Disaster in the core S10−0.53
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.51
Food and water shock S11−0.49
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.26
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.26
Hybrid campaign S06−0.19
Mass displacement S08−0.19
Energy supply shock S09−0.18
Chokepoint closure S05−0.08
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.94 | −0.88 | −1.36 | −0.59 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.72 | −0.69 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.7 · Foundational |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.64 | −0.66 | −0.92 | −0.40 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 · Nascent |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.53 | −0.57 | −0.79 | −0.34 | 0 | 18 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5.8 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.66 | −0.57 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.83 | −0.53 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 12 | Financial System Depth & Access 7.7 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.82 | −0.51 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 14 | Monetary & Currency Capability 4.8 · Nascent |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.63 | −0.49 | −0.83 | −0.36 | ▼ 3 | 15 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7.9 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.28 | −0.26 | −0.39 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.9 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.42 | −0.26 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.25 | −0.19 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.7 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.37 | −0.19 | −0.32 | −0.14 | 0 | 8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.2 · Foundational |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.23 | −0.18 | −0.30 | −0.13 | ▲ 4 | 10 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.9 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.11 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.06 | ▲ 6 | 7 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 6.5 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −1.10 | −1.28 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.15 | −1.07 | −1.05 | −0.92 |
| Pandemic | −0.73 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.83 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.07 | −0.55 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.69 | −0.95 | −1.15 | −0.69 | −0.79 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.58 | −0.58 | −0.72 | −0.96 | −0.82 | −0.66 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.74 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.82 | −0.62 | −0.85 | −0.72 | −0.40 | −0.35 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.10 | −0.33 | −0.81 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.49 | −0.37 | −0.37 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.37 | · | −0.75 | −0.37 | −0.87 | −1.21 | −1.00 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.06 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.69 | −0.65 | −0.70 | −0.33 | −0.56 | −0.64 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.12 | · | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.47 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.50 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.21 | · | −0.43 | · | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.14 | −0.31 | −0.33 | · | −0.34 | −0.32 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.39 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.02 | · |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.24 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.11 | · | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.13 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Argentina is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+24.8
Emerging-market breakout S20+14.4
Digital state leapfrog S23+8.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+6.4
Energy abundance S16+3.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−0.3
Great-power détente S18−0.9
Middle East settlement S21−1.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−7.6
Yield revolution S22−12.6
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +24.8 | 29.5 | 4.7 | 47 | 50 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8 · Foundational |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +14.4 | 24.3 | 9.8 | 50 | 46 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.7 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +8.9 | 20.5 | 11.7 | 40 | 32 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +6.4 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 47 | 63 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 8.5 · Foundational |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +3.1 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 44 | 122 | Energy Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −0.3 | 25.4 | 25.7 | 50 | 89 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8.7 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 13.5 | 14.4 | 46 | 114 | Export Capability & Sophistication 8.3 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −1.4 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 51 | 148 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · Transitional |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | −7.6 | 16.4 | 24.0 | 30 | 57 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −12.6 | 31.2 | 43.8 | 50 | 162 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 8.7 · Foundational |