Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years5.9rank 179 of 197 · 3 years: 5.6
Worst case−6.1%Infrastructure collapse · tail −5.0%
Opportunity · 10 years+5.1rank 64 of 197 · 3 years: +3.6
Best case+24100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed45%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.27expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Hybrid campaign, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; little renewable water per head; industry as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Saudi Arabia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.68
AI diffusion shock S13−0.52
Pandemic S14−0.47
Food and water shock S11−0.39
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.36
Mass displacement S08−0.34
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.31
Hybrid campaign S06−0.29
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.26
Global financial crisis S03−0.25
Chokepoint closure S05−0.25
Disaster in the core S10−0.24
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.15
Energy supply shock S09−0.13
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.81 | −0.68 | −1.17 | −0.51 | 0 | 20 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.8 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.67 | −0.52 | −0.92 | −0.40 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.54 | −0.47 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.1 · Foundational |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.59 | −0.39 | −0.78 | −0.34 | 0 | 12 | Population Health 10.5 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.22 | 0 | 10 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.3 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.75 | −0.34 | −0.67 | −0.29 | 0 | 11 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.2 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.42 | −0.31 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.49 | −0.29 | −0.54 | −0.24 | 0 | 11 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.8 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.51 | −0.26 | −0.52 | −0.22 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.6 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Low 0.34 | −0.25 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.8 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.40 | −0.25 | −0.48 | −0.20 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 9 · Foundational |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.43 | −0.24 | −0.46 | −0.20 | 0 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 9 · Foundational |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.19 | −0.15 | −0.28 | −0.12 | 0 | 7 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.18 | −0.13 | −0.24 | −0.10 | ▲ 3 | 7 | Energy Technologies 7.1 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.85 | −0.99 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −0.71 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.68 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.76 | −0.57 | −0.78 | −0.66 | −0.37 | −0.32 |
| Pandemic | −0.50 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.60 | −0.53 | −0.57 | −0.53 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.44 | −0.20 | −0.54 | −0.51 | −0.55 | −0.26 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.26 | · | −0.53 | −0.26 | −0.62 | −0.86 | −0.71 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.70 | −0.58 | −0.79 | −0.34 | −0.04 | · |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.15 | · | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.57 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.21 | −0.47 | −0.51 | · | −0.52 | −0.49 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.50 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.21 | · | −0.43 | · | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.42 | −0.36 | −0.29 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.03 | −0.41 | −0.35 | · | −0.19 | −0.40 | −0.16 | −0.32 | −0.41 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.49 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.41 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.16 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.18 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.17 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Saudi Arabia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+23.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+18.7
Middle East settlement S21+18.7
Great-power détente S18+17.3
Yield revolution S22+8.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15+6.0
Emerging-market breakout S20+3.2
Digital state leapfrog S23−3.3
Sovereign debt reset S19−8.7
Energy abundance S16−29.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +23.6 | 27.0 | 3.4 | 50 | 53 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +18.7 | 27.9 | 9.2 | 49 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +18.7 | 39.4 | 20.6 | 56 | 55 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +17.3 | 24.6 | 7.3 | 59 | 39 | Export Capability & Sophistication 11 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +8.9 | 11.1 | 2.2 | 51 | 35 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | +6.0 | 25.4 | 19.4 | 35 | 37 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.2 | 20.3 | 17.1 | 55 | 134 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −3.3 | 14.1 | 17.3 | 42 | 98 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.7 | 0.8 | 9.5 | 42 | 192 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −29.1 | 7.1 | 36.3 | 48 | 166 | Energy Technologies 7.4 · Foundational |