Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years8.9rank 159 of 197 · 3 years: 8.0
Worst case−9.3%Infrastructure collapse · tail −7.7%
Opportunity · 10 years+0.1rank 83 of 197 · 3 years: +1.7
Best case+19100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed38%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.47expected index points from best practice
Breadth8 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Colombia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.85
Pandemic S14−0.68
AI diffusion shock S13−0.58
Global financial crisis S03−0.52
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.50
Disaster in the core S10−0.49
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.48
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.33
Mass displacement S08−0.30
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.26
Hybrid campaign S06−0.20
Energy supply shock S09−0.19
Food and water shock S11−0.19
Chokepoint closure S05−0.08
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.87 | −0.85 | −1.25 | −0.55 | ▼ 3 | 25 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.69 | −0.68 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.9 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.64 | −0.58 | −0.87 | −0.39 | 0 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.59 | −0.52 | −0.87 | −0.38 | 0 | 21 | Labour & Employment 8.5 · Foundational |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.50 | −0.83 | −0.36 | 0 | 18 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 7.4 · Foundational |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.79 | −0.49 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.77 | −0.48 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.6 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.37 | −0.33 | −0.52 | −0.23 | 0 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.59 | −0.30 | −0.53 | −0.23 | 0 | 12 | Labour & Employment 9.2 · Transitional |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.41 | −0.26 | −0.41 | −0.18 | 0 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.29 | −0.20 | −0.32 | −0.14 | 0 | 11 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.5 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.22 | −0.19 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 3 | 13 | Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.25 | −0.19 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.6 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.12 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.06 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8.1 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −1.06 | −1.23 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.10 | −1.03 | −1.01 | −0.88 |
| Pandemic | −0.72 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.88 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.77 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.74 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.86 | −0.64 | −0.88 | −0.75 | −0.41 | −0.37 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −0.65 | −0.87 | −0.75 | −0.60 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.42 | −0.24 | −0.58 | −0.52 | −0.72 | −0.87 | −0.52 | −0.60 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −1.02 | −0.31 | −0.76 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.45 | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.36 | · | −0.71 | −0.36 | −0.83 | −1.16 | −0.95 | · | · |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.42 | −0.18 | −0.16 | · | −0.41 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.60 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.63 | −0.51 | −0.70 | −0.30 | −0.04 | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.50 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.21 | · | −0.43 | · | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.36 | · | −0.37 | −0.35 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.25 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.25 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.12 | · | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.14 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Colombia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+19.0
Emerging-market breakout S20+17.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+8.0
Digital state leapfrog S23+7.6
Great-power détente S18+4.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−0.5
Yield revolution S22−2.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15−12.9
Middle East settlement S21−20.7
Energy abundance S16−40.3
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +19.0 | 23.8 | 4.7 | 40 | 62 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +17.1 | 25.5 | 8.4 | 51 | 35 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +8.0 | 10.1 | 2.1 | 53 | 40 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 19.2 | 11.6 | 35 | 35 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.1 | 18.1 | 14.1 | 48 | 85 | Export Capability & Sophistication 9 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −0.5 | 23.3 | 23.8 | 41 | 90 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −2.9 | 12.4 | 15.3 | 40 | 118 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −12.9 | 12.0 | 24.9 | 24 | 72 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −20.7 | 8.6 | 29.3 | 51 | 172 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −40.3 | 5.8 | 46.1 | 32 | 170 | Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |