Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · PRK

North Korea

Baseline index 4.26Rank 136 of 197NascentIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years37.4rank 36 of 197 · 3 years: 38.2
Worst case−26.9%Global financial crisis · tail −26.1%
Opportunity · 10 years−8.8rank 147 of 197 · 3 years: −9.6
Best case+16Energy abundance · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed13%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.42expected index points from best practice
Breadth6 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; land border with russia or belarus; low real gdp per head; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in North Korea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Global financial crisis S03−1.15
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−1.10
AI diffusion shock S13−1.09
Energy supply shock S09−0.97
Pandemic S14−0.95
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.92
Chokepoint closure S05−0.87
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.77
Disaster in the core S10−0.72
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.66
Food and water shock S11−0.50
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.40
Mass displacement S08−0.19
Hybrid campaign S06−0.11
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Global financial crisis S03High 1.00−1.15−1.19−0.60▼ 1024Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 1.00−1.10−1.19−0.61▼ 1922Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 1.00−1.09−1.20−0.59▼ 1225Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 1.00−0.97−1.13−0.56▼ 619Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.77−0.95−1.13−0.52▼ 421Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.75−0.92−0.95−0.46020Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 1.00−0.87−1.13−0.52▼ 818Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0.8 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 1.00−0.77−0.92−0.44▼ 918Global Value Chain Position 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.83−0.72−0.88−0.39▼ 619Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.62−0.66−0.85−0.39▲ 319Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.46−0.50−0.61−0.27016Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.2 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.44−0.40−0.43−0.20▲ 58Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Low 0.26−0.19−0.23−0.10▲ 210Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.4 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.15−0.11−0.17−0.07▲ 18Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Global financial crisis−0.72−0.72−0.72−1.44−1.36−1.31−1.03−1.71−1.31
Geoeconomic confrontation−1.60−0.67−0.67·−1.51−1.25−1.06−1.41−1.74
AI diffusion shock−1.48−0.66−0.66−1.76−1.27−1.41−1.02−0.83−0.71
Energy supply shock−0.25−1.49−0.62−0.62−0.62−1.19−1.13−1.49−1.35
Pandemic−1.04−0.52−0.47−1.26−1.10−1.10−0.94−1.01−1.08
Sovereign funding crisis−0.11−0.85−0.53−1.18−1.05−1.21−1.13−0.98−1.20
Chokepoint closure−0.11−1.46−1.35·−0.66−1.26−0.56−1.03−1.41
Single-supplier cut-off−1.58−0.42−0.61−0.67·−1.17·−1.28−1.22
Disaster in the core−0.05−1.50−0.50−1.11−0.50−1.17−0.67−0.50−0.50
Infrastructure collapse−0.85−0.99−0.39−0.35−0.35−0.84−0.68−0.78−0.71
Food and water shock−0.06−0.58−0.29−0.70−0.67−0.69−0.34−0.56−0.66
Legitimacy crisis−0.30·−0.66−0.30−0.70−0.82−0.80··
Mass displacement·−0.19−0.16−0.38−0.31−0.43−0.18−0.02·
Hybrid campaign−0.08−0.18−0.21·−0.20−0.19·−0.08−0.08

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what North Korea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+15.7
100-day pandemic defence S24+10.9
Middle East settlement S21+10.5
Emerging-market breakout S20+10.3
Sovereign debt reset S19−1.5
Yield revolution S22−7.6
Digital state leapfrog S23−11.9
Great-power détente S18−25.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−26.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−33.8
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+15.716.50.91768Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+10.914.33.42185Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 3 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+10.512.62.12177Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+10.310.60.31676Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−1.52.84.37159Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−7.69.817.416136Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−11.96.017.99164Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−25.76.231.98190Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−26.58.835.413144Artificial Intelligence 1.7 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−33.810.344.119195Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 2.7 · Inception