Nepal · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years22.9rank 78 of 197 · 3 years: 21.9

Worst case−19.1%Energy supply shock · tail −16.7%

Opportunity · 10 years−2.2rank 100 of 197 · 3 years: −2.9

Best case+18Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 3 of 10

Shock absorbed21%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.00expected index points from best practice

Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Nepal’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.95

Chokepoint closure S05−0.80

AI diffusion shock S13−0.74

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.68

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.59

Pandemic S14−0.59

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.56

Global financial crisis S03−0.47

Food and water shock S11−0.45

Disaster in the core S10−0.43

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.38

Hybrid campaign S06−0.28

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.26

Mass displacement S08−0.25

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.91	−0.95	−1.16	−0.51	▼ 5	19	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.84	−0.80	−0.97	−0.43	▼ 7	21	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.69	−0.74	−0.91	−0.40	▼ 2	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.59	−0.68	−0.83	−0.37	▲ 3	14	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.81	−0.59	−0.80	−0.36	▼ 1	10	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.49	−0.59	−0.75	−0.33	▲ 6	12	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.51	−0.56	−0.73	−0.32	▲ 1	11	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.41	−0.47	−0.61	−0.27	▲ 7	10	Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.45	−0.45	−0.59	−0.26	▼ 2	12	Resource Infrastructure 2 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.54	−0.43	−0.59	−0.26	▲ 1	12	Transport Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.34	−0.38	−0.46	−0.21	▲ 5	7	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.32	−0.28	−0.35	−0.15	0	6	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Low 0.33	−0.26	−0.32	−0.14	▲ 2	5	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.40	−0.25	−0.35	−0.15	▼ 1	6	Labour & Employment 5.3 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.18	−1.34	−0.45	−0.56	−0.56	−1.25	−1.49	−1.43	−1.27
Chokepoint closure	−0.10	−1.36	−0.94	·	−0.61	−1.31	−0.52	−1.05	−1.34
AI diffusion shock	−0.79	−0.42	−0.34	−1.12	−0.84	−1.15	−0.98	−0.54	−0.48
Infrastructure collapse	−0.71	−1.02	−0.33	−0.36	−0.36	−0.91	−0.85	−0.83	−0.73
Legitimacy crisis	−0.41	·	−0.79	−0.44	−1.03	−1.43	−1.17	·	·
Pandemic	−0.58	−0.32	−0.23	−0.78	−0.68	−0.73	−0.68	−0.67	−0.67
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.47	−0.24	−0.65	−0.59	−0.81	−0.98	−0.59	−0.67
Global financial crisis	−0.24	−0.24	−0.19	−0.48	−0.48	−0.60	−0.80	−0.68	−0.55
Food and water shock	−0.05	−0.52	−0.21	−0.64	−0.61	−0.65	−0.30	−0.52	−0.59
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.89	−0.24	−0.66	−0.30	−0.74	−0.40	−0.30	−0.30
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.43	−0.21	−0.17	·	−0.48	−0.47	−0.48	−0.47	−0.71
Hybrid campaign	−0.22	−0.47	−0.43	·	−0.53	−0.49	·	−0.20	−0.20
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.46	−0.14	−0.16	−0.23	·	−0.46	·	−0.46	−0.46
Mass displacement	·	−0.26	−0.17	−0.53	−0.44	−0.60	−0.25	−0.03	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Nepal is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+17.8

Energy abundance S16+16.9

Middle East settlement S21+15.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.2

Yield revolution S22+6.2

100-day pandemic defence S24+1.6

Digital state leapfrog S23−2.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−9.6

Great-power détente S18−14.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15−36.8

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+17.8	19.6	1.7	24	31	Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+16.9	17.2	0.4	17	62	Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+15.7	17.4	1.8	26	62	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.5 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.2	10.5	3.3	34	56	Financial Regulation & Integrity 6.3 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+6.2	9.9	3.7	18	51	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+1.6	8.4	6.8	19	130	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−2.9	15.2	18.1	21	96	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−9.6	12.3	21.9	20	127	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−14.3	6.5	20.7	22	173	Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−36.8	6.6	43.5	13	181	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception