Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Gulf and Middle East · BHR

Bahrain

Baseline index 7.32Rank 76 of 197FoundationalGulf and Middle EastAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years13.0rank 130 of 197 · 3 years: 12.9
Worst case−11.5%Infrastructure collapse · tail −10.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.0rank 124 of 197 · 3 years: −7.5
Best case+12100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed32%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.67expected index points from best practice
Breadth2 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; public debt relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population; adult obesity rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Bahrain’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.84
Pandemic S14−0.75
Global financial crisis S03−0.70
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.67
AI diffusion shock S13−0.62
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.57
Food and water shock S11−0.48
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.46
Chokepoint closure S05−0.43
Hybrid campaign S06−0.31
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.29
Disaster in the core S10−0.28
Mass displacement S08−0.19
Energy supply shock S09−0.17
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.82−0.84−1.15−0.52▼ 323Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.68−0.75−1.05−0.46▼ 222Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.5 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.76−0.70−1.14−0.50▼ 223Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.6 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.71−0.67−1.02−0.45▼ 126Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.6 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.69−0.62−0.92−0.41023Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.57−0.57−0.79−0.35▼ 215Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.57−0.48−0.75−0.33▼ 117Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.9 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.67−0.46−0.65−0.29▼ 115Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.53−0.43−0.63−0.28▲ 117Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 3.9 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.39−0.31−0.43−0.19▲ 114Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.6 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.35−0.29−0.36−0.16▲ 28Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.2 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.43−0.28−0.47−0.21▲ 116Energy Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.37−0.19−0.33−0.14▲ 28Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09Low 0.18−0.17−0.24−0.10▲ 59Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.92−1.25−0.45−0.45−0.45−1.11−1.04−1.02−0.89
Pandemic−0.77−0.40−0.33−0.97−0.85−0.91−0.85−0.83−0.83
Global financial crisis−0.35−0.35−0.32−0.71−0.71−0.89−1.18−1.01−0.81
Sovereign funding crisis−0.07−0.56−0.31−0.78−0.70−0.96−1.17−0.70−0.80
AI diffusion shock−0.73−0.34−0.31−0.91−0.69−0.94−0.80−0.44−0.39
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.66−0.31−0.27·−0.71−0.69−0.71−0.70−1.05
Food and water shock−0.05−0.55−0.25−0.67−0.64−0.68−0.32−0.55−0.62
Single-supplier cut-off−0.82−0.24−0.31−0.39·−0.79·−0.80−0.80
Chokepoint closure−0.05−0.71−0.60·−0.32−0.69−0.27−0.55−0.71
Hybrid campaign−0.23−0.50−0.54·−0.56−0.52·−0.21−0.21
Legitimacy crisis−0.21·−0.42−0.21−0.50−0.69−0.57··
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.58−0.17−0.43−0.19−0.48−0.26−0.19−0.19
Mass displacement·−0.20−0.15−0.40−0.33−0.45−0.19−0.02·
Energy supply shock−0.04−0.24−0.09−0.10−0.10−0.22−0.26−0.25−0.23

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Bahrain is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+12.4
Great-power détente S18+7.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.9
Yield revolution S22+2.9
Sovereign debt reset S19−1.4
Middle East settlement S21−4.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−6.5
Emerging-market breakout S20−8.3
Digital state leapfrog S23−11.4
Energy abundance S16−45.9
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+12.417.55.12680Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+7.018.011.03669Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+2.913.510.62873Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+2.95.83.02675Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−1.43.44.835158Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.7 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−4.323.127.539157Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed−6.513.219.72056Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−8.313.421.741186Energy Infrastructure 6.6 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−11.48.820.329161Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−45.93.749.625172Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception