Egypt · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years9.8rank 151 of 197 · 3 years: 9.0

Worst case−7.6%Food and water shock · tail −6.8%

Opportunity · 10 years+5.3rank 63 of 197 · 3 years: +2.6

Best case+30Middle East settlement · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed35%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.58expected index points from best practice

Breadth10 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; adult obesity rate; consumer price inflation; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; staple foods among the top five imports; industry as a share of gdp; share of population aged under 15.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Egypt’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Food and water shock S11−0.68

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.59

AI diffusion shock S13−0.56

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.55

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.55

Global financial crisis S03−0.51

Mass displacement S08−0.49

Disaster in the core S10−0.44

Pandemic S14−0.40

Hybrid campaign S06−0.31

Chokepoint closure S05−0.29

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.26

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.22

Energy supply shock S09−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Food and water shock S11	High 0.87	−0.68	−1.15	−0.50	▼ 6	20	Population Health 7.1 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.58	−0.59	−0.83	−0.36	▼ 4	19	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.4 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.59	−0.56	−0.82	−0.36	0	16	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.70	−0.55	−0.72	−0.31	▼ 4	19	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.4 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.58	−0.55	−0.84	−0.37	▲ 2	14	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.1 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.51	−0.51	−0.76	−0.33	0	17	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.6 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	High 0.90	−0.49	−0.79	−0.35	▼ 4	17	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.64	−0.44	−0.70	−0.31	▼ 3	14	National Resilience & Crisis Management 8.4 · Foundational
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.40	−0.40	−0.62	−0.27	▲ 2	14	Labour & Employment 6.5 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.45	−0.31	−0.50	−0.22	0	12	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.8 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.43	−0.29	−0.51	−0.22	0	10	Economic Leverage & Dependence 7.6 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.42	−0.26	−0.43	−0.19	0	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.24	−0.22	−0.34	−0.15	0	8	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	Low 0.25	−0.21	−0.32	−0.14	▲ 1	8	Energy Technologies 4.7 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Food and water shock	−0.08	−0.78	−0.35	−0.95	−0.91	−0.97	−0.45	−0.78	−0.89
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.49	−0.28	−0.69	−0.62	−0.85	−1.03	−0.62	−0.71
AI diffusion shock	−0.74	−0.31	−0.28	−0.82	−0.61	−0.85	−0.72	−0.40	−0.35
Legitimacy crisis	−0.40	·	−0.80	−0.40	−0.94	−1.30	−1.07	·	·
Infrastructure collapse	−0.68	−0.80	−0.28	−0.28	−0.28	−0.71	−0.66	−0.65	−0.57
Global financial crisis	−0.26	−0.26	−0.23	−0.52	−0.52	−0.64	−0.86	−0.74	−0.59
Mass displacement	·	−0.50	−0.38	−1.02	−0.84	−1.15	−0.49	−0.06	·
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.90	−0.27	−0.67	−0.30	−0.75	−0.40	−0.30	−0.30
Pandemic	−0.43	−0.22	−0.18	−0.52	−0.46	−0.49	−0.46	−0.45	−0.45
Hybrid campaign	−0.23	−0.50	−0.54	·	−0.55	−0.52	·	−0.21	−0.21
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−0.47	−0.40	·	−0.21	−0.46	−0.18	−0.36	−0.47
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.51	−0.14	−0.17	−0.22	·	−0.44	·	−0.44	−0.44
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.28	−0.12	−0.10	·	−0.27	−0.26	−0.27	−0.27	−0.40
Energy supply shock	−0.05	−0.29	−0.11	−0.12	−0.12	−0.27	−0.32	−0.31	−0.28

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Egypt is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+29.8

Yield revolution S22+25.5

Emerging-market breakout S20+15.7

100-day pandemic defence S24+12.7

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+10.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+3.4

Great-power détente S18+1.9

Digital state leapfrog S23−1.5

Energy abundance S16−5.2

Superintelligence takeoff S15−11.1

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+29.8	39.4	9.7	53	25	Internal Security & Order 10 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+25.5	28.3	2.8	45	4	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+15.7	26.8	11.1	47	40	Technical & Vocational Skills 8.5 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+12.7	17.6	5.0	44	77	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.2 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+10.6	26.8	16.2	42	37	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7.7 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+3.4	8.6	5.2	34	95	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+1.9	11.5	9.6	46	98	Export Capability & Sophistication 8 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−1.5	18.6	20.1	34	85	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	−5.2	9.1	14.3	37	146	Energy Technologies 5.2 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−11.1	15.5	26.6	27	68	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception