Ghana · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years14.4rank 122 of 197 · 3 years: 14.3

Worst case−12.2%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −11.3%

Opportunity · 10 years+3.9rank 70 of 197 · 3 years: +4.2

Best case+23Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed29%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.75expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: consumer price inflation; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged under 15; oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; low life expectancy at birth.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Ghana’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.85

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83

Global financial crisis S03−0.69

Pandemic S14−0.68

AI diffusion shock S13−0.57

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.51

Food and water shock S11−0.51

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.48

Disaster in the core S10−0.37

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.35

Mass displacement S08−0.35

Energy supply shock S09−0.34

Chokepoint closure S05−0.23

Hybrid campaign S06−0.23

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.84	−0.85	−1.21	−0.53	▼ 6	16	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.77	−0.83	−1.09	−0.48	0	18	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.65	−0.69	−0.97	−0.43	▼ 4	17	Labour & Employment 5.4 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	High 0.60	−0.68	−0.93	−0.41	0	14	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.5 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.57	−0.57	−0.77	−0.34	0	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.72	−0.51	−0.71	−0.32	0	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.55	−0.51	−0.73	−0.32	▼ 3	12	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.74	−0.48	−0.76	−0.33	0	13	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.49	−0.37	−0.54	−0.23	▼ 1	11	Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.35	−0.35	−0.49	−0.22	0	8	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.59	−0.35	−0.52	−0.23	0	8	Labour & Employment 6.5 · Foundational
Energy supply shock S09	Medium 0.37	−0.34	−0.47	−0.21	▲ 4	7	Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	Low 0.28	−0.23	−0.33	−0.14	▲ 4	7	Maritime Power 3.2 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.27	−0.23	−0.30	−0.13	0	9	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.1 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.09	−0.71	−0.40	−0.98	−0.89	−1.22	−1.48	−0.89	−1.01
Infrastructure collapse	−1.01	−1.22	−0.44	−0.44	−0.44	−1.09	−1.02	−1.00	−0.87
Global financial crisis	−0.35	−0.35	−0.31	−0.70	−0.70	−0.87	−1.16	−0.99	−0.80
Pandemic	−0.72	−0.36	−0.30	−0.88	−0.77	−0.82	−0.77	−0.75	−0.75
AI diffusion shock	−0.71	−0.31	−0.28	−0.84	−0.63	−0.86	−0.73	−0.40	−0.36
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.92	−0.27	−0.34	−0.43	·	−0.86	·	−0.87	−0.87
Food and water shock	−0.06	−0.58	−0.26	−0.70	−0.67	−0.72	−0.34	−0.58	−0.66
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−0.71	−0.35	−0.83	−1.15	−0.95	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.76	−0.23	−0.56	−0.25	−0.63	−0.34	−0.25	−0.25
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.44	−0.18	−0.17	·	−0.43	−0.42	−0.43	−0.42	−0.63
Mass displacement	·	−0.36	−0.27	−0.73	−0.60	−0.82	−0.35	−0.04	·
Energy supply shock	−0.08	−0.48	−0.18	−0.20	−0.20	−0.45	−0.53	−0.51	−0.46
Chokepoint closure	−0.03	−0.39	−0.33	·	−0.17	−0.37	−0.15	−0.30	−0.38
Hybrid campaign	−0.17	−0.37	−0.40	·	−0.41	−0.38	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Ghana is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19+22.7

Emerging-market breakout S20+22.7

Yield revolution S22+13.7

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+10.9

100-day pandemic defence S24+7.8

Great-power détente S18+7.6

Digital state leapfrog S23+7.5

Superintelligence takeoff S15−9.2

Middle East settlement S21−16.9

Energy abundance S16−39.9

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+22.7	25.5	2.9	44	1	Health System Capability 8.3 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+22.7	30.4	7.6	39	14	Energy Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+13.7	16.8	3.1	31	21	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+10.9	23.7	12.8	31	36	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+7.8	16.6	8.8	31	97	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+7.6	13.1	5.5	39	66	Export Capability & Sophistication 7 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+7.5	23.5	15.9	28	36	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	−9.2	9.2	18.4	19	62	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Loser	−16.9	11.9	28.8	41	171	Energy Infrastructure 7.4 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−39.9	5.4	45.3	26	169	Energy Technologies 3 · Nascent