Georgia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years15.1rank 115 of 197 · 3 years: 15.3

Worst case−9.3%Infrastructure collapse · tail −9.2%

Opportunity · 10 years−2.9rank 102 of 197 · 3 years: −2.2

Best case+18Energy abundance · gainer in 1 of 10

Shock absorbed32%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.84expected index points from best practice

Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Georgia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.70

Pandemic S14−0.70

Energy supply shock S09−0.67

AI diffusion shock S13−0.64

Chokepoint closure S05−0.61

Global financial crisis S03−0.57

Hybrid campaign S06−0.55

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.48

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.47

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.38

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.35

Disaster in the core S10−0.31

Food and water shock S11−0.24

Mass displacement S08−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.67	−0.70	−0.96	−0.42	0	25	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.66	−0.70	−1.02	−0.45	0	24	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.72	−0.67	−0.92	−0.40	▼ 3	24	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.68	−0.64	−0.91	−0.41	▼ 1	21	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.70	−0.61	−0.83	−0.36	▼ 2	21	Maritime Power 1.5 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.59	−0.57	−0.88	−0.38	▼ 1	17	Economic Output & Productivity 5.8 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	High 0.71	−0.55	−0.79	−0.34	▼ 5	19	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.1 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.53	−0.48	−0.77	−0.34	0	19	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.2 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.47	−0.47	−0.66	−0.29	▼ 1	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.53	−0.38	−0.52	−0.23	0	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.56	−0.35	−0.57	−0.25	▲ 1	14	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.6 · Foundational
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.48	−0.31	−0.52	−0.23	▲ 1	12	Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.28	−0.24	−0.37	−0.16	▲ 2	9	Resource Infrastructure 6 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.36	−0.20	−0.32	−0.14	0	7	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.87	−1.02	−0.36	−0.36	−0.36	−0.91	−0.85	−0.83	−0.73
Pandemic	−0.75	−0.37	−0.31	−0.91	−0.79	−0.85	−0.79	−0.78	−0.78
Energy supply shock	−0.16	−0.94	−0.35	−0.39	−0.39	−0.88	−1.04	−1.00	−0.89
AI diffusion shock	−0.78	−0.35	−0.32	−0.94	−0.70	−0.97	−0.82	−0.45	−0.40
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.00	−0.84	·	−0.45	−0.96	−0.38	−0.77	−0.98
Global financial crisis	−0.29	−0.29	−0.26	−0.58	−0.58	−0.72	−0.96	−0.82	−0.66
Hybrid campaign	−0.41	−0.90	−0.97	·	−1.00	−0.93	·	−0.37	−0.37
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.05	−0.40	−0.23	−0.56	−0.50	−0.69	−0.84	−0.50	−0.58
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.59	−0.25	−0.23	·	−0.59	−0.57	−0.59	−0.57	−0.86
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.70	−0.20	−0.25	−0.31	·	−0.63	·	−0.64	−0.64
Legitimacy crisis	−0.26	·	−0.52	−0.26	−0.60	−0.84	−0.69	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.65	−0.19	−0.48	−0.22	−0.54	−0.29	−0.22	−0.22
Food and water shock	−0.03	−0.27	−0.12	−0.34	−0.32	−0.34	−0.16	−0.27	−0.31
Mass displacement	·	−0.20	−0.15	−0.40	−0.33	−0.46	−0.19	−0.02	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Georgia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+18.0

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.0

Great-power détente S18+6.9

Middle East settlement S21+6.6

Emerging-market breakout S20+5.2

100-day pandemic defence S24+4.5

Digital state leapfrog S23−5.4

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−14.1

Yield revolution S22−17.2

Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.2

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+18.0	20.2	2.2	25	58	Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.0	9.3	2.3	53	58	Health System Capability 10 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+6.9	17.2	10.4	38	70	Export Capability & Sophistication 6.7 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+6.6	17.2	10.6	41	103	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+5.2	14.0	8.8	41	119	Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+4.5	19.6	15.1	30	109	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−5.4	13.1	18.4	31	109	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−14.1	18.9	33.0	31	149	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−17.2	5.5	22.7	30	174	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−22.2	9.6	31.8	21	118	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception