Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years5.3rank 183 of 197 · 3 years: 5.5
Worst case−4.3%Energy supply shock · tail −4.1%
Opportunity · 10 years+32.1rank 6 of 197 · 3 years: +32.0
Best case+67100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 8 of 10
Shock absorbed59%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.15expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkResource Infrastructureweakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; public debt relative to gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Singapore’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.65
Chokepoint closure S05−0.62
Pandemic S14−0.57
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.55
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.46
Global financial crisis S03−0.46
AI diffusion shock S13−0.41
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.34
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.26
Disaster in the core S10−0.23
Food and water shock S11−0.21
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.20
Hybrid campaign S06−0.18
Mass displacement S08−0.08
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.94 | −0.65 | −1.21 | −0.49 | ▼ 2 | 18 | Resource Infrastructure 7.2 · Foundational |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 1.00 | −0.62 | −1.18 | −0.50 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Resource Infrastructure 7.2 · Foundational |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.94 | −0.57 | −1.45 | −0.56 | 0 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.2 · Established |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.84 | −0.55 | −1.22 | −0.49 | 0 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 8.5 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.86 | −0.46 | −1.22 | −0.45 | 0 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 12.2 · Established |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.95 | −0.46 | −1.42 | −0.46 | 0 | 12 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10.1 · Transitional |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.87 | −0.41 | −1.20 | −0.41 | 0 | 12 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10.1 · Transitional |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.77 | −0.34 | −0.78 | −0.31 | 0 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 8.2 · Foundational |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.56 | −0.26 | −0.80 | −0.26 | 0 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.60 | −0.23 | −0.65 | −0.23 | 0 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 9 · Transitional |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.43 | −0.21 | −0.56 | −0.19 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.38 | −0.20 | −0.39 | −0.16 | 0 | 10 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 9.8 · Transitional |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.38 | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.18 | 0 | 6 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.08 | 0 | 7 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 10.7 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.15 | −0.90 | −0.34 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.85 | −1.00 | −0.97 | −0.86 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.02 | −0.86 | · | −0.46 | −0.98 | −0.39 | −0.78 | −1.00 |
| Pandemic | −0.61 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.69 | −0.80 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.57 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.59 | −0.24 | −0.22 | · | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.57 | −0.56 | −0.84 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −0.58 | −0.78 | −0.67 | −0.53 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.54 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.60 | −0.45 | −0.62 | −0.53 | −0.29 | −0.26 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.66 | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.28 | · | −0.57 | · | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.37 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.47 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.16 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.24 | −0.27 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.14 | · | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.47 | −0.39 | · | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.33 | · | −0.33 | −0.31 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.01 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Singapore is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+66.5
Energy abundance S16+55.1
Great-power détente S18+48.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15+44.8
Middle East settlement S21+36.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+16.7
Emerging-market breakout S20+16.6
Digital state leapfrog S23+12.1
Yield revolution S22+7.3
Sovereign debt reset S190.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +66.5 | 67.3 | 0.8 | 77 | 1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14.3 · Established |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +55.1 | 57.5 | 2.4 | 59 | 13 | Energy Technologies 8.8 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +48.8 | 55.4 | 6.7 | 79 | 3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 14 · Established |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +44.8 | 54.3 | 9.4 | 65 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +36.8 | 38.2 | 1.4 | 64 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +16.7 | 24.0 | 7.3 | 78 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 14.4 · Established |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +16.6 | 20.9 | 4.3 | 66 | 38 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +12.1 | 17.9 | 5.7 | 67 | 18 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10.3 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +7.3 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 68 | 41 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 67 | 144 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 10.3 · Transitional |