Thailand · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years9.1rank 157 of 197 · 3 years: 9.5

Worst case−6.5%Pandemic · tail −6.3%

Opportunity · 10 years+13.4rank 34 of 197 · 3 years: +14.1

Best case+34100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed43%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.47expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Thailand’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.69

AI diffusion shock S13−0.68

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.64

Global financial crisis S03−0.62

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.60

Energy supply shock S09−0.58

Chokepoint closure S05−0.55

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.50

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.36

Hybrid campaign S06−0.29

Disaster in the core S10−0.28

Mass displacement S08−0.23

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.22

Food and water shock S11−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Pandemic S14	High 0.78	−0.69	−1.20	−0.53	▲ 2	22	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.7 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.81	−0.68	−1.11	−0.48	▼ 1	23	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.80	−0.64	−1.12	−0.49	▼ 2	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.6 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.80	−0.62	−1.19	−0.52	▼ 1	18	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7.7 · Foundational
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.67	−0.60	−0.96	−0.42	▲ 3	18	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.3 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.75	−0.58	−0.97	−0.42	▲ 3	16	Energy Technologies 5.3 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.80	−0.55	−0.95	−0.42	▲ 1	17	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 8.3 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.89	−0.50	−0.90	−0.39	▼ 2	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.45	−0.36	−0.65	−0.28	▲ 1	11	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.42	−0.29	−0.47	−0.21	▲ 1	11	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.2 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.48	−0.28	−0.52	−0.23	▲ 2	12	Energy Infrastructure 9.9 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.50	−0.23	−0.44	−0.19	0	10	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.2 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	Low 0.34	−0.22	−0.34	−0.15	▲ 2	7	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.4 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.30	−0.21	−0.40	−0.17	▲ 1	9	Internal Security & Order 10.2 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Pandemic	−0.74	−0.37	−0.30	−0.89	−0.78	−0.84	−0.78	−0.77	−0.77
AI diffusion shock	−0.89	−0.37	−0.34	−0.99	−0.75	−1.02	−0.87	−0.48	−0.43
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.81	−0.34	−0.30	·	−0.79	−0.76	−0.79	−0.77	−1.16
Global financial crisis	−0.31	−0.31	−0.28	−0.63	−0.63	−0.78	−1.04	−0.89	−0.72
Infrastructure collapse	−0.75	−0.88	−0.31	−0.31	−0.31	−0.78	−0.73	−0.71	−0.63
Energy supply shock	−0.13	−0.81	−0.30	−0.34	−0.34	−0.76	−0.90	−0.86	−0.77
Chokepoint closure	−0.07	−0.90	−0.76	·	−0.40	−0.86	−0.35	−0.69	−0.89
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.96	−0.26	−0.33	−0.41	·	−0.83	·	−0.84	−0.84
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.30	−0.17	−0.41	−0.37	−0.51	−0.62	−0.37	−0.42
Hybrid campaign	−0.21	−0.47	−0.50	·	−0.52	−0.49	·	−0.19	−0.19
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.58	−0.17	−0.43	−0.19	−0.48	−0.26	−0.19	−0.19
Mass displacement	·	−0.24	−0.18	−0.49	−0.40	−0.55	−0.23	−0.03	·
Legitimacy crisis	−0.16	·	−0.32	−0.16	−0.37	−0.52	−0.43	·	·
Food and water shock	−0.02	−0.24	−0.11	−0.29	−0.28	−0.30	−0.14	−0.24	−0.27

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Thailand is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+34.1

Energy abundance S16+31.4

Middle East settlement S21+29.2

Great-power détente S18+19.3

Emerging-market breakout S20+13.3

Digital state leapfrog S23+9.6

Superintelligence takeoff S15+8.1

Sovereign debt reset S19+6.5

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−2.1

Yield revolution S22−4.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+34.1	36.2	2.1	51	36	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+31.4	31.8	0.4	45	33	Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+29.2	30.2	1.0	56	28	Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+19.3	39.2	20.0	60	33	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.3 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+13.3	26.5	13.2	58	52	Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+9.6	19.3	9.7	44	29	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.6 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	+8.1	28.6	20.5	38	31	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+6.5	8.3	1.8	55	61	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−2.1	23.3	25.5	52	95	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−4.3	15.1	19.4	52	123	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9 · Transitional