Saint Kitts & Nevis · Results

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years32.2rank 46 of 197 · 3 years: 31.9

Worst case−22.9%Global financial crisis · tail −21.9%

Opportunity · 10 years−11.1rank 163 of 197 · 3 years: −10.3

Best case+8Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10

Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.13expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; little renewable water per head; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Saint Kitts & Nevis’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Global financial crisis S03−0.88

Energy supply shock S09−0.87

Pandemic S14−0.78

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.75

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.70

Chokepoint closure S05−0.67

AI diffusion shock S13−0.66

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.61

Food and water shock S11−0.56

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.51

Disaster in the core S10−0.47

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.40

Mass displacement S08−0.22

Hybrid campaign S06−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.78	−0.88	−1.10	−0.49	▼ 4	16	Economic Output & Productivity 1.1 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.82	−0.87	−0.99	−0.45	0	20	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.67	−0.78	−0.93	−0.42	▼ 2	19	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.69	−0.75	−0.85	−0.39	▼ 1	15	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.62	−0.70	−0.88	−0.39	▲ 3	18	Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.70	−0.67	−0.75	−0.35	▼ 1	15	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.67	−0.66	−0.79	−0.36	▲ 1	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.58	−0.61	−0.72	−0.32	▼ 2	16	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.54	−0.56	−0.70	−0.31	▲ 2	14	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.74	−0.51	−0.66	−0.30	▲ 1	9	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.3 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.59	−0.47	−0.62	−0.28	▲ 2	7	Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.55	−0.40	−0.45	−0.20	▲ 2	10	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.35	−0.22	−0.30	−0.13	▲ 2	6	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.21	−0.23	−0.10	▲ 1	5	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Global financial crisis	−0.17	−0.46	−0.30	−0.93	−0.93	−1.16	−1.55	−1.33	−1.06
Energy supply shock	−0.06	−1.13	−0.34	−0.53	−0.53	−1.20	−1.42	−1.37	−1.22
Pandemic	−0.19	−0.46	−0.28	−1.12	−0.98	−1.05	−0.98	−0.96	−0.96
Infrastructure collapse	−0.19	−1.22	−0.34	−0.45	−0.45	−1.12	−1.05	−1.03	−0.90
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.59	−0.25	−0.83	−0.74	−1.02	−1.24	−0.74	−0.85
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−1.10	−0.57	·	−0.54	−1.16	−0.46	−0.93	−1.19
AI diffusion shock	−0.19	−0.42	−0.27	−1.11	−0.83	−1.14	−0.97	−0.53	−0.48
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.19	−0.37	−0.25	·	−0.87	−0.84	−0.87	−0.85	−1.28
Food and water shock	−0.06	−0.65	−0.22	−0.80	−0.76	−0.82	−0.38	−0.65	−0.75
Legitimacy crisis	−0.16	·	−0.56	−0.42	−0.97	−1.35	−1.11	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.97	−0.22	−0.73	−0.33	−0.82	−0.44	−0.33	−0.33
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.19	−0.25	−0.24	−0.40	·	−0.82	·	−0.83	−0.83
Mass displacement	·	−0.23	−0.14	−0.47	−0.39	−0.53	−0.23	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.06	−0.37	−0.30	·	−0.41	−0.39	·	−0.16	−0.16

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Saint Kitts & Nevis is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+8.4

Middle East settlement S21+1.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+1.5

100-day pandemic defence S24+0.6

Emerging-market breakout S20−4.5

Digital state leapfrog S23−9.7

Great-power détente S18−13.1

Yield revolution S22−19.0

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−28.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15−30.2

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+8.4	9.9	1.5	11	96	Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+1.7	8.9	7.2	21	127	Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+1.5	4.9	3.4	30	124	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+0.6	7.6	7.1	13	144	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	−4.5	9.4	14.0	22	177	Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−9.7	6.9	16.6	15	151	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−13.1	8.6	21.8	16	170	Export Capability & Sophistication 2.7 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−19.0	4.6	23.5	13	182	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−28.3	7.5	35.7	15	190	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−30.2	4.9	35.0	10	164	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception