Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · BRN

Brunei

Baseline index 5.60Rank 109 of 197NascentIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years19.5rank 93 of 197 · 3 years: 20.5
Worst case−15.8%Pandemic · tail −14.5%
Opportunity · 10 years−15.1rank 185 of 197 · 3 years: −14.3
Best case+12100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed26%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.87expected index points from best practice
Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, AI diffusion shock, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Brunei’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.88
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.73
AI diffusion shock S13−0.71
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.64
Global financial crisis S03−0.62
Disaster in the core S10−0.60
Chokepoint closure S05−0.45
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.42
Energy supply shock S09−0.39
Hybrid campaign S06−0.34
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.28
Food and water shock S11−0.25
Mass displacement S08−0.14
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.80−0.88−1.16−0.52▼ 320Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.78−0.83−1.05−0.48▼ 219Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.72−0.73−0.94−0.43▼ 220Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.75−0.71−0.95−0.43▼ 218Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.95−0.64−0.83−0.38▼ 315Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.61−0.62−0.90−0.39▲ 316Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.7 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.88−0.60−0.96−0.42▼ 221Energy Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.52−0.45−0.61−0.27▲ 514Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 2 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.49−0.42−0.50−0.22▲ 112Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.7 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.40−0.39−0.51−0.22▲ 1112Energy Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.39−0.34−0.42−0.19▼ 215Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Low 0.27−0.28−0.39−0.17▲ 610Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.4 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Low 0.27−0.25−0.36−0.16▲ 510Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.9 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Low 0.26−0.14−0.23−0.10▲ 37Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.5 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.55−0.50−0.41−1.20−1.05−1.13−1.05−1.03−1.03
Infrastructure collapse−0.61−1.28−0.46−0.46−0.46−1.15−1.07−1.05−0.92
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.54−0.42−0.37·−0.97−0.93−0.97−0.95−1.42
AI diffusion shock−0.60−0.41−0.37−1.09−0.82−1.13−0.96−0.53−0.47
Single-supplier cut-off−0.61−0.38−0.48−0.60·−1.21·−1.23−1.23
Global financial crisis−0.26−0.31−0.28−0.63−0.63−0.79−1.05−0.90−0.72
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.23−0.37−0.91−0.41−1.03−0.55−0.41−0.41
Chokepoint closure−0.06−0.73−0.62·−0.33−0.70−0.28−0.56−0.72
Legitimacy crisis−0.26·−0.63−0.32−0.74−1.02−0.84··
Energy supply shock−0.09−0.54−0.20−0.22−0.22−0.50−0.60−0.58−0.51
Hybrid campaign−0.22−0.56−0.60·−0.62−0.58·−0.23−0.23
Sovereign funding crisis−0.03−0.23−0.13−0.32−0.29−0.39−0.48−0.29−0.33
Food and water shock−0.03−0.29−0.13−0.35−0.34−0.36−0.17−0.29−0.33
Mass displacement·−0.14−0.11−0.29−0.24−0.33−0.14−0.02·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Brunei is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+11.9
Sovereign debt reset S19−2.4
Digital state leapfrog S23−7.1
Yield revolution S22−11.4
Great-power détente S18−11.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−13.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−18.9
Emerging-market breakout S20−22.5
Middle East settlement S21−22.5
Energy abundance S16−53.4
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+11.914.72.82083Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−2.40.32.730169Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.7 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−7.16.914.021124Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−11.43.014.418153Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−11.714.025.724165Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−13.79.923.722147Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−18.912.331.21691Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Loser−22.513.936.434195Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−22.59.131.630173Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.5 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−53.44.958.418179Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception