Switzerland · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years5.4rank 182 of 197 · 3 years: 5.8

Worst case−4.3%Energy supply shock · tail −4.0%

Opportunity · 10 years+31.0rank 9 of 197 · 3 years: +32.2

Best case+65Energy abundance · gainer in 6 of 10

Shock absorbed56%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.21expected index points from best practice

Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkResource Infrastructureweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Hybrid campaign. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; refugees hosted per head of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Switzerland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.63

Chokepoint closure S05−0.62

Pandemic S14−0.53

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.50

AI diffusion shock S13−0.46

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.40

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.37

Global financial crisis S03−0.36

Hybrid campaign S06−0.31

Mass displacement S08−0.18

Disaster in the core S10−0.18

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.16

Food and water shock S11−0.12

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.06

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.95	−0.63	−1.22	−0.50	▼ 2	13	Resource Infrastructure 5 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.83	−0.62	−0.96	−0.41	▼ 2	15	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.86	−0.53	−1.33	−0.51	0	12	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 11.6 · Transitional
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.76	−0.50	−1.09	−0.46	0	10	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 10.6 · Transitional
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.88	−0.46	−1.20	−0.46	0	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.75	−0.40	−1.06	−0.40	0	5	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.3 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.79	−0.37	−0.80	−0.32	0	10	Resource Infrastructure 5.9 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.68	−0.36	−1.02	−0.36	0	5	Economic Output & Productivity 14.8 · Established
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.55	−0.31	−0.59	−0.25	0	7	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.55	−0.18	−0.49	−0.18	0	1	Foundational Education 15.4 · Advanced
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.45	−0.18	−0.49	−0.18	0	1	Energy Infrastructure 13.5 · Established
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.35	−0.16	−0.36	−0.15	0	2	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.2 · Established
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.21	−0.12	−0.27	−0.11	0	1	Resource Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Low 0.12	−0.06	−0.17	−0.06	▲ 1	1	Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.15	−0.88	−0.32	−0.37	−0.37	−0.82	−0.97	−0.94	−0.84
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.05	−0.75	·	−0.47	−1.01	−0.40	−0.81	−1.04
Pandemic	−0.57	−0.28	−0.23	−0.69	−0.60	−0.64	−0.60	−0.59	−0.59
Infrastructure collapse	−0.63	−0.73	−0.26	−0.26	−0.26	−0.66	−0.61	−0.60	−0.52
AI diffusion shock	−0.61	−0.25	−0.23	−0.67	−0.51	−0.70	−0.59	−0.33	−0.29
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.51	−0.21	−0.19	·	−0.49	−0.48	−0.49	−0.48	−0.73
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.72	−0.19	−0.25	−0.31	·	−0.62	·	−0.63	−0.63
Global financial crisis	−0.18	−0.18	−0.16	−0.37	−0.37	−0.46	−0.61	−0.52	−0.42
Hybrid campaign	−0.24	−0.52	−0.50	·	−0.58	−0.54	·	−0.22	−0.22
Mass displacement	·	−0.18	−0.14	−0.37	−0.31	−0.42	−0.18	−0.02	·
Disaster in the core	−0.01	−0.38	−0.11	−0.28	−0.13	−0.31	−0.17	−0.13	−0.13
Legitimacy crisis	−0.12	·	−0.23	−0.12	−0.27	−0.37	−0.31	·	·
Food and water shock	−0.01	−0.13	−0.06	−0.16	−0.15	−0.16	−0.08	−0.13	−0.15
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.01	−0.05	−0.03	−0.07	−0.07	−0.09	−0.11	−0.07	−0.07

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Switzerland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+65.1

100-day pandemic defence S24+57.4

Great-power détente S18+51.4

Superintelligence takeoff S15+39.5

Middle East settlement S21+36.1

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+18.8

Digital state leapfrog S23+7.9

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.8

Yield revolution S22+1.5

Sovereign debt reset S19−2.7

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+65.1	65.2	0.1	65	6	Energy Technologies 11 · Transitional
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+57.4	58.5	1.1	73	10	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.7 · Established
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+51.4	56.0	4.6	82	2	Export Capability & Sophistication 16 · Advanced
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Gainer	+39.5	47.7	8.2	67	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.2 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+36.1	36.5	0.4	61	17	Alliances & Security Cooperation 9.5 · Transitional
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+18.8	31.0	12.2	82	14	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 16 · Advanced
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+7.9	12.3	4.4	76	33	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 14.2 · Established
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+6.8	13.0	6.2	75	100	Energy Infrastructure 14 · Established
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+1.5	4.9	3.4	67	87	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−2.7	0.2	2.9	77	171	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 14.5 · Established