Liechtenstein · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years16.1rank 110 of 197 · 3 years: 17.8

Worst case−12.5%Energy supply shock · tail −11.9%

Opportunity · 10 years−0.1rank 85 of 197 · 3 years: +0.4

Best case+21Energy abundance · gainer in 3 of 10

Shock absorbed29%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.87expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; refugees hosted per head of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Liechtenstein’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.90

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.89

Global financial crisis S03−0.79

Pandemic S14−0.67

AI diffusion shock S13−0.63

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.61

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.57

Chokepoint closure S05−0.53

Hybrid campaign S06−0.44

Mass displacement S08−0.26

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.23

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.17

Disaster in the core S10−0.14

Food and water shock S11−0.12

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.98	−0.90	−1.15	−0.52	▼ 6	27	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 1.00	−0.89	−1.27	−0.57	▼ 6	22	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.85	−0.79	−1.20	−0.54	▼ 3	18	Economic Output & Productivity 6.3 · Foundational
Pandemic S14	High 0.65	−0.67	−0.93	−0.42	▼ 1	16	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.81	−0.63	−1.01	−0.46	0	18	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.96	−0.61	−0.82	−0.38	▼ 2	16	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.55	−0.57	−0.73	−0.33	▲ 3	17	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.60	−0.53	−0.61	−0.28	▼ 1	13	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.55	−0.44	−0.50	−0.23	▼ 2	10	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.55	−0.26	−0.46	−0.20	▲ 1	8	Social Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.44	−0.23	−0.39	−0.18	▲ 2	7	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Low 0.19	−0.17	−0.27	−0.12	▲ 5	6	Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Low 0.23	−0.14	−0.24	−0.11	▲ 4	5	Transport Infrastructure 4.2 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.14	−0.12	−0.18	−0.08	▲ 5	5	Resource Infrastructure 0.2 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.08	−1.10	−0.20	−0.57	−0.57	−1.29	−1.53	−1.47	−1.31
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.80	−0.48	−0.19	·	−1.20	−1.16	−1.20	−1.18	−1.77
Global financial crisis	−0.35	−0.39	−0.17	−0.83	−0.83	−1.04	−1.39	−1.19	−0.95
Pandemic	−0.58	−0.36	−0.15	−0.92	−0.80	−0.86	−0.80	−0.79	−0.79
AI diffusion shock	−0.62	−0.35	−0.16	−1.00	−0.75	−1.03	−0.88	−0.48	−0.43
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.84	−0.31	−0.19	−0.58	·	−1.17	·	−1.19	−1.19
Infrastructure collapse	−0.55	−0.84	−0.18	−0.32	−0.32	−0.80	−0.75	−0.73	−0.64
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−0.84	−0.24	·	−0.45	−0.97	−0.39	−0.77	−1.00
Hybrid campaign	−0.31	−0.76	−0.36	·	−0.93	−0.87	·	−0.35	−0.35
Mass displacement	·	−0.27	−0.11	−0.56	−0.46	−0.64	−0.27	−0.03	·
Legitimacy crisis	−0.17	·	−0.16	−0.19	−0.45	−0.62	−0.51	·	·
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.02	−0.15	−0.05	−0.21	−0.19	−0.26	−0.31	−0.19	−0.21
Disaster in the core	−0.01	−0.29	−0.05	−0.22	−0.10	−0.25	−0.13	−0.10	−0.10
Food and water shock	−0.01	−0.14	−0.03	−0.17	−0.16	−0.17	−0.08	−0.14	−0.16

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Liechtenstein is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+21.1

Great-power détente S18+15.5

100-day pandemic defence S24+11.9

Middle East settlement S21+8.8

Digital state leapfrog S23−2.8

Superintelligence takeoff S15−4.2

Yield revolution S22−7.6

Sovereign debt reset S19−8.1

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−17.1

Emerging-market breakout S20−18.7

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+21.1	21.3	0.2	21	51	Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+15.5	29.4	13.9	37	44	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+11.9	14.6	2.6	25	82	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+8.8	9.9	1.1	23	87	Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−2.8	4.8	7.6	31	93	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	−4.2	14.7	18.9	21	53	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−7.6	1.6	9.2	25	135	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−8.1	0.0	8.2	60	190	Health System Capability 11.3 · Transitional
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−17.1	11.4	28.5	29	159	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Loser	−18.7	6.1	24.8	36	194	Transport Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent