Pakistan · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years13.2rank 127 of 197 · 3 years: 12.2

Worst case−10.6%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −9.0%

Opportunity · 10 years+7.4rank 54 of 197 · 3 years: +6.5

Best case+28Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed30%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.78expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: consumer price inflation; remittances relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Pakistan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.84

Food and water shock S11−0.67

Energy supply shock S09−0.64

AI diffusion shock S13−0.61

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.57

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.55

Pandemic S14−0.54

Disaster in the core S10−0.51

Global financial crisis S03−0.48

Chokepoint closure S05−0.48

Mass displacement S08−0.43

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.31

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.26

Hybrid campaign S06−0.23

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.78	−0.84	−1.13	−0.49	▼ 2	25	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	High 0.74	−0.67	−0.98	−0.43	▼ 2	22	Population Health 3.8 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.72	−0.64	−0.93	−0.41	0	19	Energy Technologies 4.5 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.58	−0.61	−0.81	−0.35	0	18	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.78	−0.57	−0.80	−0.35	▼ 1	15	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5.1 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.56	−0.55	−0.82	−0.36	▲ 2	18	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.7 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.49	−0.54	−0.76	−0.33	▲ 2	18	Population Health 4.3 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.65	−0.51	−0.71	−0.31	0	16	Health System Capability 5.6 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.44	−0.48	−0.66	−0.29	▲ 1	16	Labour & Employment 4.8 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.65	−0.48	−0.78	−0.34	▲ 1	14	Economic Leverage & Dependence 5.5 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	High 0.69	−0.43	−0.61	−0.27	0	10	Foundational Education 4.8 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.31	−0.31	−0.44	−0.19	▲ 2	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.5 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.37	−0.26	−0.38	−0.16	▲ 2	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.4 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.33	−0.23	−0.37	−0.16	▲ 2	10	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.9 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.09	−0.70	−0.43	−0.97	−0.87	−1.20	−1.45	−0.87	−0.99
Food and water shock	−0.08	−0.76	−0.38	−0.92	−0.88	−0.95	−0.44	−0.76	−0.86
Energy supply shock	−0.15	−0.88	−0.37	−0.37	−0.37	−0.83	−0.98	−0.95	−0.84
AI diffusion shock	−0.80	−0.33	−0.33	−0.89	−0.67	−0.92	−0.78	−0.43	−0.38
Legitimacy crisis	−0.42	·	−0.91	−0.42	−0.97	−1.35	−1.11	·	·
Infrastructure collapse	−0.68	−0.79	−0.31	−0.28	−0.28	−0.71	−0.66	−0.65	−0.57
Pandemic	−0.57	−0.28	−0.26	−0.69	−0.60	−0.65	−0.60	−0.59	−0.59
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−1.04	−0.35	−0.77	−0.35	−0.86	−0.46	−0.35	−0.35
Global financial crisis	−0.24	−0.24	−0.24	−0.48	−0.48	−0.60	−0.81	−0.69	−0.55
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−0.78	−0.72	·	−0.35	−0.75	−0.30	−0.60	−0.77
Mass displacement	·	−0.44	−0.37	−0.89	−0.73	−1.00	−0.43	−0.05	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.40	−0.17	−0.17	·	−0.39	−0.37	−0.39	−0.38	−0.57
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.49	−0.13	−0.19	−0.21	·	−0.43	·	−0.44	−0.44
Hybrid campaign	−0.17	−0.37	−0.43	·	−0.41	−0.38	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Pakistan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+27.5

Yield revolution S22+22.3

Middle East settlement S21+18.2

Energy abundance S16+17.8

Sovereign debt reset S19+16.8

100-day pandemic defence S24+7.7

Digital state leapfrog S23+7.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+5.7

Great-power détente S18−7.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15−25.9

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+27.5	30.6	3.1	36	4	Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+22.3	25.5	3.2	37	8	Technology Adoption & Diffusion 6.5 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+18.2	24.7	6.5	41	56	Internal Security & Order 7 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+17.8	27.0	9.1	36	59	Energy Technologies 6 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+16.8	19.8	3.1	36	8	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+7.7	13.6	6.0	32	99	Population Health 5.3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+7.3	26.3	19.0	34	38	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+5.7	22.2	16.6	32	56	Population Health 5.3 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−7.3	10.3	17.6	36	153	Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−25.9	9.9	35.8	23	140	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception