Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Latin America and Caribbean · BLZ

Belize

Baseline index 4.03Rank 142 of 197NascentLatin America and CaribbeanAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years30.3rank 56 of 197 · 3 years: 29.1
Worst case−22.5%Global financial crisis · tail −21.5%
Opportunity · 10 years−7.7rank 141 of 197 · 3 years: −6.7
Best case+9Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed18%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.11expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: public debt relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Belize’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Global financial crisis S03−0.91
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.90
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.80
Energy supply shock S09−0.75
Pandemic S14−0.74
AI diffusion shock S13−0.64
Chokepoint closure S05−0.60
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.59
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.53
Disaster in the core S10−0.51
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.33
Mass displacement S08−0.30
Food and water shock S11−0.26
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Global financial crisis S03High 0.81−0.91−1.15−0.51▼ 317Investment Attraction & Projection 1.4 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.80−0.90−1.13−0.50▼ 417Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.9 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.73−0.80−0.92−0.42▼ 316Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.70−0.75−0.88−0.39▼ 116Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.64−0.74−0.89−0.40▲ 116Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.65−0.64−0.77−0.35015Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.61−0.60−0.69−0.31▲ 112Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.55−0.59−0.68−0.31012Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.76−0.53−0.69−0.32▲ 19Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.3 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.64−0.51−0.69−0.30▼ 214Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.46−0.33−0.38−0.17▲ 66Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.47−0.30−0.41−0.18▲ 38Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Low 0.26−0.26−0.34−0.15▲ 78Resource Infrastructure 1.6 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.23−0.21−0.23−0.10▲ 16Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Global financial crisis−0.17−0.48−0.38−0.95−0.95−1.19−1.59−1.36−1.09
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.76−0.38−1.05−0.95−1.30−1.58−0.95−1.08
Infrastructure collapse−0.20−1.31−0.42−0.47−0.47−1.18−1.10−1.07−0.94
Energy supply shock−0.04−1.06−0.36−0.45−0.45−1.00−1.19−1.15−1.02
Pandemic−0.20−0.44−0.32−1.06−0.92−0.99−0.92−0.91−0.91
AI diffusion shock−0.20−0.40−0.32−1.06−0.80−1.10−0.93−0.51−0.46
Chokepoint closure−0.04−1.02−0.67·−0.46−0.98−0.39−0.79−1.01
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.19−0.35−0.28·−0.82−0.79−0.82−0.81−1.21
Legitimacy crisis−0.16·−0.71−0.42−0.99−1.37−1.13··
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.06−0.28−0.78−0.35−0.88−0.47−0.35−0.35
Single-supplier cut-off−0.18−0.21−0.24−0.33·−0.67·−0.68−0.68
Mass displacement·−0.31−0.21−0.63−0.52−0.71−0.30−0.04·
Food and water shock−0.03−0.30−0.12−0.37−0.35−0.38−0.18−0.30−0.34
Hybrid campaign−0.08−0.36−0.35·−0.40−0.38·−0.15−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Belize is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19+8.7
Emerging-market breakout S20+7.2
Energy abundance S16+2.4
100-day pandemic defence S240.0
Middle East settlement S21−1.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−11.7
Great-power détente S18−12.4
Yield revolution S22−18.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−29.6
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+8.712.13.33138Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+7.213.26.02295Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+2.48.96.512126Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed0.07.07.013148Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−1.78.29.922149Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.5 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−6.39.816.116118Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−11.79.120.815137Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−12.49.321.718169Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−18.74.523.313181Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−29.64.934.510160Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception