El Salvador · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years22.4rank 81 of 197 · 3 years: 21.4

Worst case−16.9%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −16.1%

Opportunity · 10 years−1.8rank 97 of 197 · 3 years: −1.3

Best case+15Energy abundance · gainer in 3 of 10

Shock absorbed23%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.08expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; few months of imports covered by reserves; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in El Salvador’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.96

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.90

Global financial crisis S03−0.89

Pandemic S14−0.86

Energy supply shock S09−0.83

AI diffusion shock S13−0.64

Disaster in the core S10−0.63

Chokepoint closure S05−0.62

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.61

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.45

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.39

Food and water shock S11−0.33

Hybrid campaign S06−0.20

Mass displacement S08−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.84	−0.96	−1.22	−0.53	▼ 5	31	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.82	−0.90	−1.13	−0.51	▼ 3	23	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.78	−0.89	−1.15	−0.51	▼ 4	24	Investment Attraction & Projection 3.9 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	High 0.74	−0.86	−1.12	−0.50	▼ 4	23	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.82	−0.83	−1.04	−0.46	▼ 3	23	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.63	−0.64	−0.83	−0.37	0	22	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.85	−0.63	−0.93	−0.40	▼ 2	22	Energy Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.66	−0.62	−0.78	−0.34	▼ 1	21	Maritime Power 1.2 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.57	−0.61	−0.78	−0.35	▼ 2	17	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.58	−0.45	−0.59	−0.26	▲ 1	17	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.3 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.51	−0.39	−0.50	−0.22	▲ 1	15	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.35	−0.33	−0.46	−0.20	▲ 4	16	Resource Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.22	−0.20	−0.25	−0.11	▲ 2	12	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.34	−0.20	−0.30	−0.13	▲ 2	13	Labour & Employment 6.3 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.10	−0.80	−0.45	−1.11	−1.00	−1.38	−1.67	−1.00	−1.14
Infrastructure collapse	−0.90	−1.35	−0.48	−0.48	−0.48	−1.21	−1.13	−1.10	−0.97
Global financial crisis	−0.42	−0.45	−0.40	−0.90	−0.90	−1.12	−1.49	−1.28	−1.02
Pandemic	−0.80	−0.47	−0.38	−1.13	−0.99	−1.06	−0.99	−0.97	−0.97
Energy supply shock	−0.12	−1.17	−0.44	−0.49	−0.49	−1.10	−1.30	−1.26	−1.12
AI diffusion shock	−0.70	−0.36	−0.32	−0.96	−0.72	−0.99	−0.84	−0.46	−0.41
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.31	−0.39	−0.97	−0.44	−1.09	−0.58	−0.44	−0.44
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.03	−0.87	·	−0.46	−0.99	−0.39	−0.79	−1.01
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.65	−0.33	−0.30	·	−0.77	−0.74	−0.77	−0.75	−1.13
Legitimacy crisis	−0.32	·	−0.67	−0.33	−0.78	−1.08	−0.89	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.65	−0.21	−0.27	−0.33	·	−0.67	·	−0.68	−0.68
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.38	−0.17	−0.46	−0.44	−0.47	−0.22	−0.38	−0.43
Hybrid campaign	−0.15	−0.32	−0.35	·	−0.36	−0.33	·	−0.13	−0.13
Mass displacement	·	−0.21	−0.15	−0.42	−0.34	−0.47	−0.20	−0.02	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what El Salvador is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+15.2

Emerging-market breakout S20+11.8

Sovereign debt reset S19+11.4

100-day pandemic defence S24+7.8

Middle East settlement S21+7.6

Great-power détente S18−1.6

Digital state leapfrog S23−2.9

Yield revolution S22−12.1

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−14.2

Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.8

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+15.2	16.5	1.3	19	71	Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+11.8	19.2	7.4	33	67	Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+11.4	14.4	3.1	33	26	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+7.8	14.0	6.2	22	98	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+7.6	14.1	6.5	34	93	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−1.6	17.2	18.8	32	118	Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−2.9	13.6	16.6	22	95	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−12.1	7.7	19.8	21	158	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−14.2	13.0	27.2	23	150	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−20.8	7.2	28.0	15	107	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception