Burundi · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years50.6rank 17 of 197 · 3 years: 50.9

Worst case−40.8%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −37.7%

Opportunity · 10 years−8.4rank 145 of 197 · 3 years: −11.0

Best case+12Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed11%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.25expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; few months of imports covered by reserves; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; little renewable water per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Burundi’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−1.01

Energy supply shock S09−0.99

Global financial crisis S03−0.80

Chokepoint closure S05−0.76

Food and water shock S11−0.67

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.59

Pandemic S14−0.59

Mass displacement S08−0.51

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.50

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.48

Disaster in the core S10−0.48

AI diffusion shock S13−0.45

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41

Hybrid campaign S06−0.17

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.82	−1.01	−1.14	−0.51	▼ 4	24	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.91	−0.99	−1.07	−0.49	▼ 3	23	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.65	−0.80	−0.91	−0.40	▼ 1	21	Economic Output & Productivity 0.3 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.76	−0.76	−0.83	−0.38	▼ 2	19	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.60	−0.67	−0.77	−0.34	0	19	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.73	−0.59	−0.67	−0.30	0	15	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0.4 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.48	−0.59	−0.66	−0.29	0	15	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.69	−0.51	−0.60	−0.26	▼ 3	16	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.43	−0.50	−0.55	−0.24	▲ 4	14	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.43	−0.48	−0.53	−0.24	0	14	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.53	−0.48	−0.57	−0.25	0	17	Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.41	−0.45	−0.49	−0.22	0	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.55	−0.41	−0.44	−0.20	0	12	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.19	−0.17	−0.19	−0.08	0	6	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.02	−0.86	−0.43	−1.20	−1.07	−1.49	−1.74	−1.07	−1.24
Energy supply shock	−0.02	−1.32	−0.50	−0.62	−0.62	−1.40	−1.66	−1.50	−1.31
Global financial crisis	−0.09	−0.43	−0.34	−0.85	−0.85	−1.06	−1.42	−1.22	−0.97
Chokepoint closure	−0.02	−1.25	−0.83	·	−0.61	−1.31	−0.52	−1.04	−1.29
Food and water shock	−0.02	−0.73	−0.31	−0.96	−0.91	−0.98	−0.46	−0.78	−0.90
Legitimacy crisis	−0.09	·	−0.78	−0.48	−1.11	−1.55	−1.27	·	·
Pandemic	−0.09	−0.35	−0.26	−0.85	−0.75	−0.80	−0.75	−0.73	−0.73
Mass displacement	·	−0.53	−0.35	−1.07	−0.88	−1.20	−0.51	−0.06	·
Infrastructure collapse	−0.09	−0.84	−0.27	−0.30	−0.30	−0.75	−0.70	−0.68	−0.60
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.09	−0.29	−0.23	·	−0.68	−0.65	−0.68	−0.66	−1.00
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−1.01	−0.27	−0.75	−0.34	−0.84	−0.45	−0.34	−0.34
AI diffusion shock	−0.09	−0.28	−0.22	−0.75	−0.56	−0.77	−0.66	−0.36	−0.32
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.09	−0.27	−0.30	−0.42	·	−0.86	·	−0.87	−0.87
Hybrid campaign	−0.05	−0.30	−0.28	·	−0.33	−0.31	·	−0.13	−0.13

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Burundi is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+11.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+10.3

Energy abundance S16+4.6

Middle East settlement S21+2.8

Yield revolution S22+0.2

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−3.3

Great-power détente S18−3.3

100-day pandemic defence S24−9.1

Digital state leapfrog S23−17.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15−24.9

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+11.6	11.8	0.3	13	69	Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+10.3	14.3	4.0	19	28	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 3.5 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+4.6	5.9	1.3	7	117	Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+2.8	9.1	6.3	15	121	Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+0.2	4.5	4.3	7	96	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−3.3	6.1	9.3	8	100	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−3.3	4.9	8.2	12	127	Export Capability & Sophistication 2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−9.1	3.2	12.3	8	188	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Loser	−17.0	7.7	24.7	8	181	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−24.9	1.7	26.6	5	134	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception