Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years8.4rank 162 of 197 · 3 years: 9.1
Worst case−6.1%Energy supply shock · tail −5.6%
Opportunity · 10 years+21.1rank 23 of 197 · 3 years: +22.0
Best case+46100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 6 of 10
Shock absorbed47%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.41expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Ireland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.74
Pandemic S14−0.66
Chokepoint closure S05−0.64
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.63
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.60
AI diffusion shock S13−0.55
Global financial crisis S03−0.54
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.50
Hybrid campaign S06−0.38
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.33
Mass displacement S08−0.22
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.21
Disaster in the core S10−0.15
Food and water shock S11−0.13
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −0.74 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 2 | 21 | Energy Technologies 3.1 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.84 | −0.66 | −1.30 | −0.57 | 0 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.7 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.82 | −0.64 | −0.97 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Maritime Power 2.4 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.73 | −0.63 | −1.05 | −0.46 | 0 | 17 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.5 · Nascent |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.86 | −0.60 | −1.22 | −0.53 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 6.4 · Foundational |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.84 | −0.55 | −1.15 | −0.49 | 0 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.79 | −0.54 | −1.17 | −0.51 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Economic Output & Productivity 11.4 · Transitional |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.90 | −0.50 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 6.2 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.55 | −0.38 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Air Power 1.7 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.50 | −0.33 | −0.71 | −0.31 | 0 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.56 | −0.22 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 12.4 · Established |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.45 | −0.21 | −0.46 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 6.7 · Foundational |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Low 0.31 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 9.3 · Transitional |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.20 | −0.13 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Resource Infrastructure 7 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.17 | −1.03 | −0.39 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −0.97 | −1.15 | −1.11 | −0.98 |
| Pandemic | −0.70 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.85 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.06 | −0.89 | · | −0.47 | −1.02 | −0.41 | −0.81 | −1.05 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.78 | −0.91 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −0.65 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.77 | −0.32 | −0.29 | · | −0.75 | −0.72 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −1.10 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.72 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.80 | −0.60 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.39 | −0.34 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.54 | −0.68 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.62 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.96 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.41 | · | −0.83 | · | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.29 | −0.63 | −0.68 | · | −0.70 | −0.65 | · | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.34 | −0.47 | −0.57 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.47 | −0.38 | −0.52 | −0.22 | −0.03 | · |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.15 | · | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.36 | −0.49 | −0.41 | · | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.10 |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.17 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Ireland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+46.4
Great-power détente S18+43.5
Energy abundance S16+40.5
Middle East settlement S21+31.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15+23.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+12.7
Digital state leapfrog S23+6.5
Emerging-market breakout S20−1.0
Yield revolution S22−1.8
Sovereign debt reset S19−4.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +46.4 | 48.0 | 1.6 | 62 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +43.5 | 52.2 | 8.7 | 66 | 6 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 12.3 · Established |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +40.5 | 40.6 | 0.1 | 43 | 22 | Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +31.5 | 32.2 | 0.7 | 56 | 22 | Energy Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +23.4 | 37.5 | 14.2 | 53 | 21 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +12.7 | 30.3 | 17.6 | 63 | 32 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +6.5 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 60 | 42 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.6 · Transitional |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 13.1 | 14.1 | 59 | 159 | Energy Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −1.8 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 61 | 110 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −4.0 | 0.9 | 4.9 | 75 | 182 | Health System Capability 14.7 · Established |