Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years21.5rank 88 of 197 · 3 years: 21.2
Worst case−17.4%Infrastructure collapse · tail −15.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−13.2rank 176 of 197 · 3 years: −14.1
Best case+3Yield revolution · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed20%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.90expected index points from best practice
Breadth7 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; youth unemployment rate; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Iraq’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.82
AI diffusion shock S13−0.68
Pandemic S14−0.62
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.61
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.59
Food and water shock S11−0.55
Global financial crisis S03−0.48
Mass displacement S08−0.47
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.42
Chokepoint closure S05−0.38
Hybrid campaign S06−0.36
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.35
Disaster in the core S10−0.35
Energy supply shock S09−0.19
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.71 | −0.82 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▲ 2 | 21 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.61 | −0.68 | −0.80 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.50 | −0.62 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.54 | −0.61 | −0.73 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.72 | −0.59 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 2 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.9 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.54 | −0.55 | −0.71 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3.8 · Nascent |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.39 | −0.48 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 6 | 9 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.4 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.70 | −0.47 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Internal Security & Order 4.4 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.55 | −0.42 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.43 | −0.38 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 5 | 13 | Maritime Power 2.3 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.41 | −0.36 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Low 0.29 | −0.35 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.9 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.42 | −0.35 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.1 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.19 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.11 | ▲ 12 | 5 | Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.85 | −1.22 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.09 | −1.02 | −0.99 | −0.87 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.71 | −0.38 | −0.34 | −1.02 | −0.76 | −1.05 | −0.89 | −0.49 | −0.44 |
| Pandemic | −0.60 | −0.34 | −0.27 | −0.81 | −0.71 | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.65 | −0.33 | −0.30 | · | −0.78 | −0.75 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −1.14 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.41 | · | −0.86 | −0.43 | −1.01 | −1.40 | −1.15 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.06 | −0.62 | −0.28 | −0.76 | −0.72 | −0.77 | −0.36 | −0.62 | −0.71 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.49 | −0.49 | −0.61 | −0.81 | −0.70 | −0.56 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.48 | −0.36 | −0.97 | −0.80 | −1.09 | −0.46 | −0.06 | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.69 | −0.22 | −0.29 | −0.36 | · | −0.72 | · | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.63 | −0.53 | · | −0.28 | −0.60 | −0.24 | −0.48 | −0.62 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.27 | −0.59 | −0.64 | · | −0.65 | −0.61 | · | −0.24 | −0.24 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.60 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.72 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.60 | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.24 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.25 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Iraq is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Yield revolution S22+3.4
100-day pandemic defence S24+2.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+1.9
Emerging-market breakout S20−1.4
Sovereign debt reset S19−4.2
Great-power détente S18−4.3
Digital state leapfrog S23−11.9
Middle East settlement S21−27.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−28.5
Energy abundance S16−69.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +3.4 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 19 | 70 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 19 | 123 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +1.9 | 12.7 | 10.8 | 20 | 80 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | −1.4 | 13.4 | 14.8 | 22 | 164 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −4.2 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 25 | 183 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −4.3 | 10.1 | 14.4 | 20 | 132 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −11.9 | 10.2 | 22.1 | 17 | 163 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −27.4 | 18.1 | 45.5 | 28 | 176 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −28.5 | 6.9 | 35.4 | 12 | 155 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −69.1 | 2.5 | 71.6 | 17 | 189 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |