Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Indo-Pacific · KHM

Cambodia

Baseline index 4.93Rank 122 of 197NascentIndo-PacificAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years26.1rank 70 of 197 · 3 years: 28.7
Worst case−21.2%Energy supply shock · tail −19.5%
Opportunity · 10 years−1.8rank 96 of 197 · 3 years: −2.0
Best case+17Middle East settlement · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed20%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.14expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; industry as a share of gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Cambodia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.05
Chokepoint closure S05−0.94
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.89
Global financial crisis S03−0.82
Pandemic S14−0.75
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.68
AI diffusion shock S13−0.67
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.55
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.51
Disaster in the core S10−0.43
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.35
Hybrid campaign S06−0.30
Food and water shock S11−0.28
Mass displacement S08−0.12
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.99−1.05−1.26−0.56▼ 724Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.97−0.94−1.15−0.51▼ 624Resource Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.86−0.89−1.12−0.51▼ 622Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.73−0.82−1.08−0.48021Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.7 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.62−0.75−0.92−0.41020Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.94−0.68−0.84−0.39▼ 517Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.63−0.67−0.81−0.36▲ 116Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.48−0.55−0.66−0.30▲ 715Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.46−0.51−0.66−0.29▲ 418Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.53−0.43−0.57−0.25▲ 210Energy Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.41−0.35−0.41−0.18▲ 311Justice System & Fundamental Rights 3.2 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.33−0.30−0.36−0.16▲ 18Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Low 0.28−0.28−0.37−0.16▲ 28Resource Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Low 0.19−0.12−0.16−0.07▲ 25Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.9 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.14−1.48−0.55−0.62−0.62−1.38−1.64−1.58−1.41
Chokepoint closure−0.12−1.55−1.30·−0.70−1.49−0.60−1.20−1.54
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.66−0.51−0.46·−1.18−1.14−1.18−1.16−1.74
Global financial crisis−0.33−0.42−0.38−0.84−0.84−1.04−1.39−1.19−0.95
Pandemic−0.59−0.41−0.34−0.99−0.87−0.93−0.87−0.85−0.85
Single-supplier cut-off−0.74−0.40−0.51−0.63·−1.27·−1.29−1.29
AI diffusion shock−0.62−0.38−0.34−1.02−0.77−1.05−0.89−0.49−0.44
Infrastructure collapse−0.50−0.83−0.30−0.30−0.30−0.74−0.69−0.68−0.59
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.43−0.24−0.59−0.53−0.74−0.89−0.53−0.61
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.88−0.26−0.65−0.29−0.74−0.39−0.29−0.29
Legitimacy crisis−0.22·−0.52−0.26−0.60−0.84−0.69··
Hybrid campaign−0.20−0.49−0.53·−0.54−0.51·−0.20−0.20
Food and water shock−0.03−0.32−0.14−0.39−0.37−0.40−0.19−0.32−0.36
Mass displacement·−0.13−0.09−0.25−0.21−0.29−0.12−0.01·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Cambodia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+16.7
Energy abundance S16+16.3
Emerging-market breakout S20+8.9
100-day pandemic defence S24+5.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+3.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−4.2
Great-power détente S18−5.4
Yield revolution S22−6.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−12.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−16.4
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+16.718.41.73158Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.8 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+16.317.00.71866Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+8.920.811.93084Technical & Vocational Skills 5.5 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+5.89.33.417102Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+3.06.33.326100Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−4.211.015.117101Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−5.421.226.630142Export Capability & Sophistication 5.3 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−6.77.013.818129Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−12.29.721.917141Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−16.48.024.41282Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception