{ "version": "1.0.0", "name": "GINC 250", "intro": "The 250 slow structural forces behind the scenarios, organised by the nine domains of national capability. Scenarios are shocks; trends are what raise or lower their likelihood and shape who is exposed. Every trend is scored against every scenario, and every trend against every other.", "rubric": [ { "level": 0, "label": "Not related" }, { "level": 1, "label": "Very low" }, { "level": 2, "label": "Low" }, { "level": 3, "label": "Moderate" }, { "level": 4, "label": "High" }, { "level": 5, "label": "Very high" }, { "level": 6, "label": "Critical" } ], "rubric_note": "A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Scores are GINC desk judgements and will be replaced by the panel.", "domains": [ { "key": "critical-technology", "label": "Critical Technology", "dimension": "Hard", "colour": "#42A5F5", "atlas_anchor": "critical_technology" }, { "key": "strategic-infrastructure", "label": "Strategic Infrastructure", "dimension": "Hard", "colour": "#1976D2", "atlas_anchor": "strategic_infrastructure" }, { "key": "national-security", "label": "National Security", "dimension": "Hard", "colour": "#0D47A1", "atlas_anchor": "national_security" }, { "key": "human-capital", "label": "Human Capital", "dimension": "Soft", "colour": "#BA68C8", "atlas_anchor": "human_capital" }, { "key": "information-influence", "label": "Information & Influence", "dimension": "Soft", "colour": "#8E24AA", "atlas_anchor": "information_influence" }, { "key": "governance-integrity", "label": "Governance & Integrity", "dimension": "Soft", "colour": "#4A148C", "atlas_anchor": "governance_integrity" }, { "key": "financial-strength", "label": "Financial Strength", "dimension": "Economic", "colour": "#FFB300", "atlas_anchor": "financial_strength" }, { "key": "production-innovation", "label": "Production & Innovation", "dimension": "Economic", "colour": "#EF6C00", "atlas_anchor": "production_innovation" }, { "key": "trade-investment", "label": "Trade & Investment", "dimension": "Economic", "colour": "#BF360C", "atlas_anchor": "trade_investment" } ], "domains_note": "Each trend is assigned to the one domain of the National Capability Framework it bears on most. The assignment is a GINC desk judgement.", "paradigms": [ { "key": "technology-financials", "label": "Technology & Financials", "colour": "#6652ff" }, { "key": "consumer-food-retail", "label": "Consumer, Food & Retail", "colour": "#fdc103" }, { "key": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "label": "Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation", "colour": "#f80315" }, { "key": "health-modern-science", "label": "Health & Modern Science", "colour": "#2ec2ff" }, { "key": "energy-environment", "label": "Energy & Environment", "colour": "#37c43e" }, { "key": "society-culture", "label": "Society & Culture", "colour": "#9b71e4" }, { "key": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "label": "Geoeconomics & Statecraft", "colour": "#fa8205" } ], "paradigms_note": "Each trend also carries a theme, a second way to read the list by sector.", "trends": [ { "id": "advanced-semiconductors", "name": "Advanced semiconductors", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "The next wave of chip innovation spanning advanced nodes, chiplets and custom AI silicon, entangled with the geopolitical race for fabrication capacity.", "tags": [ "compute", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 6, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 4, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "artificial-intelligence", "name": "Artificial intelligence", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "General-purpose machine intelligence, from large language models to autonomous agents, reshaping productivity, labour and capital allocation across every sector.", "tags": [ "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 2, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 6, "S14": 1, "S15": 6, "S16": 3, "S17": 4, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "biometrics", "name": "Biometrics", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Identification and authentication through physical traits such as face, fingerprint, iris and voice, underpinning security, payments and border systems.", "tags": [ "data-governance", "cyber" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 1, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 5, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "geospatial-technology", "name": "Geospatial technology", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Satellite imagery, positioning and location analytics used for mapping, monitoring and decision-making across agriculture, logistics, insurance and defence.", "tags": [ "space-geo" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 3, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "internet-of-things", "name": "Internet of Things", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Networks of connected sensors and devices generating continuous operational data across homes, industry and infrastructure.", "tags": [ "connectivity", "cyber" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "quantum-computing", "name": "Quantum computing", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Computation exploiting quantum effects to tackle problems intractable for classical machines, moving from laboratory demonstrations towards commercial readiness in areas such as cryptography and materials.", "tags": [ "compute" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "humanoid-robotics", "name": "Humanoid robotics", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "General-purpose, AI-powered robots in human form capable of entering the workforce as physical labour, expanding automation beyond digital tasks.", "tags": [ "robotics", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 4, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "digital-payments-and-fintech", "name": "Digital payments & FinTech", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "The shift from cash to digital rails, embedded finance and challenger platforms across payments, lending and wealth.", "tags": [ "digital-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 5, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 1, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 6, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "sustainable-finance", "name": "Sustainable finance", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Capital flows and financial products directed at environmental outcomes, from green bonds to transition and sustainability-linked finance.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "carbon" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "financial-inclusion", "name": "Financial inclusion", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Small-scale credit, savings and insurance extending financial access to underserved populations, increasingly delivered through mobile platforms.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 5, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "food-waste", "name": "Food waste", "paradigm": "consumer-food-retail", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Reduction, redistribution and valorisation of the roughly one third of food production currently lost along supply chains.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "circular" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "diet-and-nutrition-shifts", "name": "Diet & nutrition shifts", "paradigm": "consumer-food-retail", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Personalised and functional nutrition linking diet directly to measurable health outcomes, reshaping food formulation and retail.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "longevity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "autonomous-vehicles", "name": "Autonomous vehicles", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Self-driving cars, trucks and shuttles progressing from supervised pilots to commercial deployment.", "tags": [ "mobility", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "rail-and-mass-transit-investment", "name": "Rail & mass transit investment", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Expansion of fast intercity rail and urban mass transit as lower-carbon alternatives to road and short-haul air travel.", "tags": [ "mobility" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "advanced-materials", "name": "Advanced materials", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Novel materials such as composites, graphene and smart alloys enabling lighter, stronger and more functional products.", "tags": [ "materials" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "space-economy", "name": "Space economy", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Commercial launch, satellites, Earth observation and in-orbit services as the cost of access to space falls.", "tags": [ "space-geo" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "defence-technology", "name": "Defence technology", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "New defence capability from drones and autonomy to AI-enabled systems, propelled by rearmament budgets and dual-use venture investment.", "tags": [ "defence" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 5, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ai-drug-development", "name": "AI drug development", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Machine learning applied to target discovery, molecule design and clinical trials, compressing pharmaceutical timelines and cost.", "tags": [ "biotech", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 3, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 6, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "modern-vaccines", "name": "Modern vaccines", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Next-generation vaccine platforms, notably mRNA, extending beyond infectious disease into cancer and chronic illness.", "tags": [ "biotech", "disease" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 6, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 6, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 6 } }, { "id": "hygiene-and-sanitation", "name": "Hygiene & sanitation", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Public-health infrastructure and products for sanitation and hygiene, from WASH access in developing markets to infection control.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "water" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "antimicrobial-resistance", "name": "Antimicrobial resistance", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "The declining effectiveness of antibiotics against resistant pathogens, demanding new drugs, diagnostics and stewardship.", "tags": [ "disease" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "obesity-and-glp-1-medicines", "name": "Obesity & GLP-1 medicines", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "The global rise in obesity and its treatment economy, transformed by GLP-1 weight-loss medicines.", "tags": [ "disease", "longevity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 6, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "healthcare-system-reform", "name": "Healthcare system reform", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Structural change in how care is funded, organised and delivered as ageing populations strain public systems.", "tags": [ "health-systems" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "womens-health-and-fertility-care", "name": "Women's health & fertility care", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Fertility treatment, reproductive health and technology addressing women's health needs amid falling birth rates.", "tags": [ "demography", "digital-health" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "gene-editing-and-cell-therapies", "name": "Gene editing & cell therapies", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Editing genomes with tools such as CRISPR for therapy, agriculture and industrial biology, with one-time gene and cell treatments moving from rare diseases towards common ones.", "tags": [ "biotech" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 5, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "data-centre-power-demand", "name": "Data-centre power demand", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Electricity and cooling demand from AI and cloud data centres rising sharply, and the siting, efficiency and clean-power choices that follow.", "tags": [ "power", "compute" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 5, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "renewable-energy", "name": "Renewable energy", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Wind, solar and other renewables scaling as the backbone of decarbonising, increasingly AI-hungry power systems.", "tags": [ "clean-energy", "power" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 6, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "climate-adaptation-and-resilience", "name": "Climate adaptation & resilience", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Forecasting, adaptation and resilience against intensifying storms, floods, heat and fire.", "tags": [ "climate" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 6, "S11": 4, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 4, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "energy-poverty", "name": "Energy poverty", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Closing the access gap for populations lacking reliable, affordable energy, including off-grid and mini-grid solutions.", "tags": [ "power", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 2, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "water-technology-and-desalination", "name": "Water technology & desalination", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Treatment, desalination, leakage reduction and efficiency as scarcity intensifies, and the dependence of desalination and pipelines on constant power.", "tags": [ "water" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 2, "S10": 2, "S11": 5, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 2, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "advanced-nuclear", "name": "Advanced nuclear", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Small modular reactors and next-generation fission, with fusion research behind them, as firm low-carbon power.", "tags": [ "clean-energy", "power" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ocean-economy", "name": "Ocean economy", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Sustainable use of ocean resources spanning offshore energy, aquaculture, shipping and marine conservation.", "tags": [ "nature", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "grid-enhancement", "name": "Grid enhancement", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Modernising and expanding electricity grids, interconnectors and transmission to carry electrified, renewable-heavy demand.", "tags": [ "power" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 6, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 6, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage", "name": "Carbon capture, utilisation & storage", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Capturing carbon dioxide from industry and the air for storage or reuse in hard-to-abate sectors.", "tags": [ "carbon" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "distributed-power", "name": "Distributed power", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Decentralised generation such as rooftop solar, microgrids and behind-the-meter assets reshaping the utility model.", "tags": [ "power", "clean-energy" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 5, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "fossil-fuel-resurgence", "name": "Fossil fuel resurgence", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Renewed investment in oil, gas and coal where energy security and AI-driven power demand outweigh transition pressure.", "tags": [ "fossil" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 5, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 6, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "demand-flexibility-and-smart-metering", "name": "Demand flexibility & smart metering", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Connected metering enabling dynamic tariffs, demand response and granular consumption data.", "tags": [ "power", "connectivity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ageing-population", "name": "Ageing population", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "The demographic shift towards older societies, reshaping labour markets, healthcare, housing and pensions.", "tags": [ "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 6, "S18": 0, "S19": 1, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "emerging-middle-class", "name": "Emerging middle class", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Hundreds of millions of new middle-income consumers, concentrated in Asia and Africa, redirecting global demand.", "tags": [ "demography", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 6, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "urbanisation", "name": "Urbanisation", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Continued migration into cities, concentrating economic activity and straining housing and infrastructure.", "tags": [ "cities", "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 5, "S11": 3, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 5, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "deglobalisation", "name": "Deglobalisation", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "The fragmentation of trade, capital and technology flows into regional blocs as security is prioritised over efficiency.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 6, "S03": 3, "S04": 2, "S05": 4, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 0, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "civil-unrest", "name": "Civil unrest", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Rising protest and social instability driven by inequality, polarisation and cost-of-living pressure.", "tags": [ "politics", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 6, "S08": 3, "S09": 3, "S10": 1, "S11": 4, "S12": 2, "S13": 3, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "misinformation-and-disinformation", "name": "Misinformation & disinformation", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "False and misleading information, spread by mistake or by design through platforms and generative AI, eroding trust in media, elections and institutions.", "tags": [ "information" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 6, "S07": 6, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 2, "S14": 4, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "shifting-economic-power", "name": "Shifting economic power", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "The rebalancing of economic weight from West to East and towards a multipolar order.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 3, "S03": 2, "S04": 2, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 3, "S20": 6, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "climate-migration", "name": "Climate migration", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Displacement and relocation of populations driven by climate impacts, within and across borders.", "tags": [ "climate", "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 6, "S09": 0, "S10": 4, "S11": 4, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 1, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "changing-nature-of-work", "name": "Changing nature of work", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Changing expectations, skills and structures of work, from flexibility to human-machine collaboration.", "tags": [ "work-skills" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 5, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "online-harms-and-safety", "name": "Online harms & safety", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Abuse, fraud and exploitation online, especially of children, and the moderation, design and safety technology used against them.", "tags": [ "data-governance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 2, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "africas-demographic-and-economic-rise", "name": "Africa's demographic & economic rise", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Africa's demographic and economic ascent as the source of much of the world's future workforce and consumption growth.", "tags": [ "demography", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 4, "S20": 6, "S21": 0, "S22": 4, "S23": 4, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "malnutrition", "name": "Malnutrition", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Persistent undernutrition and micronutrient deficiency alongside rising food insecurity in vulnerable regions.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 6, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 6, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "great-power-competition", "name": "Great-power competition", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Rivalry between the United States and China, and between Russia and the West, across trade, technology, security and standards.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 5, "S03": 2, "S04": 2, "S05": 4, "S06": 5, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 2, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 2 } }, { "id": "supply-chain-concentration", "name": "Supply-chain concentration", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Dependence on one country or firm for critical inputs, from rare earth magnets and chips to medicines and fertiliser.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 4, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 2, "S13": 3, "S14": 4, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "industrial-policy-competition", "name": "Industrial policy competition", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Subsidies, tariffs and local-content rules used by governments to relocate strategic industries, in a race that others must match or lose.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "manufacturing" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 4, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 0, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "export-controls-and-economic-statecraft", "name": "Export controls & economic statecraft", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Licensing regimes, sanctions and investment screening used as instruments of coercion, with secondary effects on third countries.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 2, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "sovereign-debt-accumulation", "name": "Sovereign debt accumulation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Public debt at record levels, a more diverse creditor base and higher interest bills that crowd out health, education and investment.", "tags": [ "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 6, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 3, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 2, "S18": 2, "S19": 6, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "aid-retrenchment", "name": "Aid retrenchment", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Cuts to development assistance by major donors, withdrawing finance from health systems and budgets that depend on it.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 5, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 5, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "dollar-dependence-and-payment-rail-fragmentation", "name": "Dollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Reliance on dollar funding and messaging systems, and the attempts to build alternatives as financial exclusion becomes a tool of policy.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 5, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 3, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "non-bank-finance-growth", "name": "Non-bank finance growth", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Private credit, hedge funds and other lenders outside the banking perimeter taking a growing share of credit with less supervision.", "tags": [ "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 6, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "capital-concentration-in-ai", "name": "Capital concentration in AI", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Equity markets, corporate investment and profits concentrating in a handful of AI-linked firms and the infrastructure they finance.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 5, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "rearmament-and-defence-spending", "name": "Rearmament & defence spending", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Rising military budgets and stockpile rebuilding across NATO, Asia and the Gulf, competing with other public spending.", "tags": [ "defence", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 1, "S05": 3, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "armed-conflict-at-post-war-highs", "name": "Armed conflict at post-war highs", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "More active state-based conflicts than at any time since 1945, with wider spillovers to trade, energy and displacement.", "tags": [ "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 5, "S06": 4, "S07": 3, "S08": 6, "S09": 4, "S10": 1, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 5, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "hybrid-and-grey-zone-warfare", "name": "Hybrid & grey-zone warfare", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Deniable sabotage, drone incursion, jamming and instrumentalised migration used by states below the threshold of war.", "tags": [ "conflict", "cyber" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 6, "S07": 4, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 4, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 3, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "economic-stagnation", "name": "Economic stagnation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Weak productivity and trend growth in advanced economies, narrowing fiscal space and sharpening distributional conflict.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "just-in-time-logistics-and-thin-inventories", "name": "Just-in-time logistics & thin inventories", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Lean supply chains and low stock cover for fuel, food, medicines and components, which turn delays into stoppages.", "tags": [ "logistics", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 5, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 5, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "energy-import-dependence", "name": "Energy import dependence", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Reliance on imported oil, gas and LNG through a small number of suppliers and sea routes.", "tags": [ "fossil", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 6, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 6, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 5, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "inequality", "name": "Inequality", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Widening gaps in income, wealth and opportunity within nations, and the politics that follows from them.", "tags": [ "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 5, "S08": 1, "S09": 2, "S10": 2, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 4, "S14": 2, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "declining-institutional-trust", "name": "Declining institutional trust", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Falling public confidence in government, science, media and elections, which lowers compliance when it is most needed.", "tags": [ "institutions", "information" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 6, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 2, "S14": 6, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 4, "S24": 5 } }, { "id": "demographic-pressure-in-young-nations", "name": "Demographic pressure in young nations", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Fast-growing, young populations in low-income states outpacing jobs, services and food supply.", "tags": [ "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 4, "S08": 5, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 5, "S21": 0, "S22": 4, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "climate-change-and-physical-risk", "name": "Climate change & physical risk", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Rising frequency and severity of floods, heat, drought, fire and storms as the climate warms.", "tags": [ "climate" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 5, "S09": 2, "S10": 6, "S11": 6, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 1, "S20": 2, "S21": 0, "S22": 5, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "water-stress-and-transboundary-water", "name": "Water stress & transboundary water", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Growing scarcity of fresh water and the use of shared rivers and aquifers as instruments of pressure between states.", "tags": [ "water", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 4, "S09": 1, "S10": 3, "S11": 6, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 3, "S22": 5, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "breadbasket-and-food-export-concentration", "name": "Breadbasket & food export concentration", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Dependence of world staple supply on a few exporting regions, and the readiness of exporters to ban shipments.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 6, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 6, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "loss-of-firm-and-black-start-capacity", "name": "Loss of firm & black-start capacity", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Retirement of dispatchable plant and restart capability faster than firm replacements arrive.", "tags": [ "power", "fossil" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 6, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "infrastructure-ageing", "name": "Infrastructure ageing", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Grids, cables, pipes, bridges and water systems operating beyond design life with deferred maintenance.", "tags": [ "cities", "power" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 4, "S11": 0, "S12": 5, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "compute-scaling-and-ai-infrastructure", "name": "Compute scaling & AI infrastructure", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "The build-out of chips, data centres and power for training and running frontier models, doubling on a timescale of months.", "tags": [ "compute", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 3, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 5, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "automated-ai-research", "name": "Automated AI research", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "AI systems doing a growing share of AI research and engineering, with the prospect of each generation designing its successor.", "tags": [ "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 4, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 2, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "gnss-and-timing-dependence", "name": "GNSS & timing dependence", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Reliance of transport, telecoms, finance and power on satellite positioning and timing signals that can be jammed or spoofed.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "cyber" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 5, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 5, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "chronic-disease-burden", "name": "Chronic disease burden", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "The rising share of ill health and spending due to cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer and other long-term conditions.", "tags": [ "disease", "health-systems" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 6, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "zoonotic-spillover-and-pandemic-risk", "name": "Zoonotic spillover & pandemic risk", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "The standing risk of novel pathogens crossing from animals to humans and spreading through dense, connected populations.", "tags": [ "disease" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 6, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 6 } }, { "id": "inflation-and-cost-of-living", "name": "Inflation & cost of living", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Persistent price pressure and the squeeze on household budgets, which constrain central banks and feed political discontent.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 3, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 0, "S11": 4, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 2, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "asset-bubbles-and-stretched-valuations", "name": "Asset bubbles & stretched valuations", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Asset prices running ahead of earnings and income, in equities, property and private markets, leaving a sharp repricing as the release.", "tags": [ "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 6, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "organised-crime-and-illicit-economies", "name": "Organised crime & illicit economies", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Trafficking, fraud and illicit finance at industrial scale, corroding institutions and financing violence.", "tags": [ "conflict", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 3, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 1, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "talent-and-labour-shortages", "name": "Talent & labour shortages", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Too few workers with the skills employers and public services need, as populations age and skills demand shifts.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 2, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "youth-unemployment-and-lack-of-opportunity", "name": "Youth unemployment & lack of opportunity", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Young people unable to find work that matches their education, a standing source of emigration and unrest.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 5, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 5, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "earth-system-tipping-points", "name": "Earth system tipping points", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Abrupt, hard-to-reverse changes in ice sheets, ocean circulation, forests and permafrost that would shift baseline climate, not only extremes.", "tags": [ "climate", "nature" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 0, "S10": 4, "S11": 5, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "nuclear-and-wmd-proliferation", "name": "Nuclear & WMD proliferation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "More states and actors seeking nuclear, chemical or biological weapons as guarantees weaken and thresholds blur.", "tags": [ "conflict", "defence" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 5, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "state-fragility-and-intrastate-violence", "name": "State fragility & intrastate violence", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "States losing control of territory or the monopoly of force, through coups, insurgency and civil war.", "tags": [ "conflict", "politics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 5, "S08": 6, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "weak-social-protection", "name": "Weak social protection", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Safety nets, public services and insurance too thin to absorb a shock, so that losses fall on households.", "tags": [ "inequality", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 4, "S08": 3, "S09": 3, "S10": 3, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 5, "S14": 3, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 5, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "seismic-and-geophysical-hazard", "name": "Seismic & geophysical hazard", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Earthquake, tsunami and volcanic risk to cities and infrastructure built in exposed zones.", "tags": [ "climate", "cities" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 6, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "state-capacity-and-delivery", "name": "State capacity & delivery", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "The ability of the state to plan, decide and deliver: the quality of its administration, data and people, which decides how every shock lands.", "tags": [ "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 3, "S03": 3, "S04": 4, "S05": 3, "S06": 3, "S07": 4, "S08": 4, "S09": 3, "S10": 5, "S11": 3, "S12": 4, "S13": 4, "S14": 5, "S15": 4, "S16": 3, "S17": 4, "S18": 2, "S19": 4, "S20": 5, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 6, "S24": 5 } }, { "id": "public-sector-ai-adoption", "name": "Public-sector AI adoption", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Governments using AI in casework, services and decisions, and whether the state adopts as fast as the firms it regulates.", "tags": [ "ai", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 5, "S14": 1, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 5, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "digital-public-infrastructure", "name": "Digital public infrastructure", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Shared digital identity, payment and data-exchange systems run as public goods, on which services and emergency payments depend.", "tags": [ "digital-finance", "data-governance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 4, "S13": 3, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 1, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 6, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "adaptive-regulation", "name": "Adaptive regulation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Regulators moving from fixed rulebooks to data-driven, iterative oversight as technology outruns legislation.", "tags": [ "institutions", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 3, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 4, "S23": 3, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "corruption-and-kleptocracy", "name": "Corruption & kleptocracy", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Capture of public office and public money for private gain, which hollows out capability that exists on paper.", "tags": [ "institutions", "politics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 5, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 4, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 4, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "election-integrity-and-interference", "name": "Election integrity & interference", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Pressure on the conduct and acceptance of elections, from foreign interference to disputed counts and annulled results.", "tags": [ "information", "politics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 5, "S07": 6, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "weakening-multilateral-institutions", "name": "Weakening multilateral institutions", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "The declining authority and funding of the UN system, the WTO and the international financial institutions, and the turn to ad hoc groupings.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 2, "S03": 2, "S04": 4, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 5, "S20": 0, "S21": 3, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "rise-of-middle-powers", "name": "Rise of middle powers", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "India, the Gulf states, Türkiye, Brazil, Indonesia and others using non-alignment as leverage between the great powers.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 3, "S20": 5, "S21": 5, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "alliance-realignment-and-burden-shifting", "name": "Alliance realignment & burden-shifting", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Security guarantees becoming conditional, allies asked to pay and do more, and new groupings forming around specific interests.", "tags": [ "defence", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 4, "S06": 5, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "us-policy-volatility", "name": "US policy volatility", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Abrupt shifts in US trade, aid, security and regulatory policy, and the difficulty for others of planning around them.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "politics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 4, "S03": 3, "S04": 3, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 6, "S19": 3, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "chinas-economic-slowdown", "name": "China's economic slowdown", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Property overhang, deflation and weak demand in China, exported as overcapacity and lower commodity demand.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 3, "S03": 4, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 3, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "economic-security-policy", "name": "Economic security policy", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Governments treating supply chains, technology and investment as security questions, with screening, de-risking and resilience mandates.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "tariff-escalation", "name": "Tariff escalation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "The use of broad tariffs as a first-resort instrument, and the cycles of retaliation and truce that follow.", "broken_out_from": "deglobalisation", "tags": [ "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 4, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 0, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "whole-of-society-resilience", "name": "Whole-of-society resilience", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Civil preparedness as policy: household self-sufficiency, civil defence, exercises and the public's readiness to cope without services.", "tags": [ "resilience", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 5, "S07": 1, "S08": 2, "S09": 3, "S10": 5, "S11": 3, "S12": 5, "S13": 0, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "critical-infrastructure-protection", "name": "Critical infrastructure protection", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "The security and redundancy of energy, water, transport, telecoms and control systems against attack, accident and hazard.", "tags": [ "resilience", "cyber" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 6, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 6, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "drone-and-autonomous-warfare", "name": "Drone & autonomous warfare", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Cheap drones and autonomous systems changing the cost of attack and defence, on battlefields and against civilian infrastructure.", "broken_out_from": "defence-technology", "tags": [ "defence", "robotics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 4, "S06": 6, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 3, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "arms-control-erosion", "name": "Arms control erosion", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "The lapse of treaties and verification regimes for nuclear, conventional and emerging weapons, with little to replace them.", "tags": [ "defence", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ai-safety-and-governance", "name": "AI safety & governance", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Evaluation, control and international rules for advanced AI: what is tested, who verifies it and who is liable.", "broken_out_from": "artificial-intelligence", "tags": [ "ai", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 4, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ransomware-and-cybercrime", "name": "Ransomware & cybercrime", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Criminal intrusion for extortion against hospitals, utilities and governments, often tolerated by the states that host it.", "broken_out_from": "cyber-insecurity", "tags": [ "cyber" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 6, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "synthetic-media-and-deepfakes", "name": "Synthetic media & deepfakes", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Generated audio, image and video that cannot be told from the real, lowering the cost of fraud and of doubt.", "broken_out_from": "misinformation-and-disinformation", "tags": [ "information", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 5, "S07": 5, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "foreign-information-manipulation", "name": "Foreign information manipulation", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "State-run campaigns to shape another nation's opinion and elections through proxies, platforms and covert funding.", "broken_out_from": "misinformation-and-disinformation", "tags": [ "information", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 6, "S07": 6, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 2, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "brain-drain-and-talent-migration", "name": "Brain drain & talent migration", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "The movement of skilled people towards a few hubs, and the loss this means for the nations that trained them.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "falling-fertility-and-population-decline", "name": "Falling fertility & population decline", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Birth rates far below replacement across most advanced and many middle-income nations, shrinking future workforces.", "broken_out_from": "ageing-population", "tags": [ "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "pension-and-care-system-strain", "name": "Pension & care system strain", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Rising pension, health and long-term care liabilities meeting a smaller base of contributors.", "broken_out_from": "ageing-population", "tags": [ "demography", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 6, "S18": 0, "S19": 1, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "global-health-governance", "name": "Global health governance", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "The rules, funding and authority of international health bodies, from outbreak reporting to pandemic agreements.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 6, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 6 } }, { "id": "biosecurity-and-dual-use-biology", "name": "Biosecurity & dual-use biology", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Oversight of pathogens research, synthesis and laboratories as the tools of biology become cheap and widely held.", "tags": [ "biotech", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 5, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 5 } }, { "id": "asylum-and-migration-system-strain", "name": "Asylum & migration system strain", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Backlogs, contested rules and thin reception capacity as arrivals outpace the systems built to process them.", "tags": [ "demography", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 4, "S08": 6, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 3, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "strategic-stockpiles-and-reserves", "name": "Strategic stockpiles & reserves", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Public reserves of fuel, grain, medicines and critical inputs: their size, their grade and whether they are where the people are.", "tags": [ "resilience", "logistics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 5, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 2, "S11": 5, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "subsea-cable-and-pipeline-vulnerability", "name": "Subsea cable & pipeline vulnerability", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "The exposure of seabed cables and pipelines to sabotage and accident, and the thin capacity to repair them.", "tags": [ "connectivity", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 6, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 4, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 3, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "maritime-chokepoint-dependence", "name": "Maritime chokepoint dependence", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Reliance of energy, food and trade on a few straits and canals, and on the insurers and navies that keep them open.", "tags": [ "trade", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 6, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 6, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "frontier-model-concentration", "name": "Frontier model concentration", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "The most capable AI models, and the compute to train them, held by a handful of firms in two countries.", "broken_out_from": "artificial-intelligence", "tags": [ "ai", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 3, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 6, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "open-weight-ai-diffusion", "name": "Open-weight AI diffusion", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Capable models released for anyone to run, which spreads capability, cuts prices and weakens control.", "broken_out_from": "artificial-intelligence", "tags": [ "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 5, "S14": 0, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 2, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "health-workforce-shortage", "name": "Health workforce shortage", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Too few doctors, nurses and community health workers, with recruitment from poorer systems filling gaps in richer ones.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "work-skills" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 1, "S14": 6, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 5 } }, { "id": "regional-medicines-manufacturing", "name": "Regional medicines manufacturing", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Vaccine and medicine production built closer to where it is needed, after export bans in 2020 left importers last in line.", "tags": [ "biotech", "manufacturing" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 5, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 6 } }, { "id": "pharmaceutical-supply-concentration", "name": "Pharmaceutical supply concentration", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Dependence on a few countries for active ingredients and intermediates, visible only when a tender fails.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "health-systems" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 5 } }, { "id": "disaster-risk-finance", "name": "Disaster risk finance", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Catastrophe bonds, contingent credit and insurance pools arranged before a disaster, so that money moves in days.", "broken_out_from": "climate-adaptation-and-resilience", "tags": [ "climate", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 5, "S11": 2, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "early-warning-systems", "name": "Early-warning systems", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Forecasting and alerting that reaches people in time and still works when power and networks fail.", "broken_out_from": "climate-adaptation-and-resilience", "tags": [ "climate", "resilience" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 6, "S11": 3, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "solar-and-storage-cost-collapse", "name": "Solar & storage cost collapse", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Solar modules and batteries falling in cost year after year until round-the-clock clean power undercuts fossil fuel.", "broken_out_from": "renewable-energy", "tags": [ "clean-energy" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 6, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "enhanced-geothermal", "name": "Enhanced geothermal", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Drilling techniques from shale applied to heat, offering firm clean power almost anywhere.", "tags": [ "clean-energy", "power" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "fusion-energy", "name": "Fusion energy", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Progress from ignition towards power plants, with private capital and AI-aided design shortening the timeline.", "broken_out_from": "advanced-nuclear", "tags": [ "clean-energy" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "peak-oil-demand-and-petrostate-exposure", "name": "Peak oil demand & petrostate exposure", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Oil demand reaching a plateau, and the fiscal dependence of exporting states on revenue that will not return.", "tags": [ "fossil", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 6, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "fertiliser-dependence", "name": "Fertiliser dependence", "paradigm": "consumer-food-retail", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Reliance on a few exporters and on natural gas for the nutrients that half of world food production needs.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 5, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 6, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 6, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "creditor-fragmentation", "name": "Creditor fragmentation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Sovereign debt owed to bondholders, China and other new lenders as well as the Paris Club, with no single table to restructure at.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 5, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 6, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "graduate-labour-market-squeeze", "name": "Graduate labour market squeeze", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Entry-level professional hiring falling ahead of mid-career displacement, breaking the route from degree to career.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 6, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "taiwan-strait-tension", "name": "Taiwan Strait tension", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Military pressure around Taiwan and the dependence of the world's advanced chip supply on one island.", "tags": [ "conflict", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 6, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 6, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "russia-nato-confrontation", "name": "Russia–NATO confrontation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "The war in Ukraine and the wider contest along NATO's eastern flank, from sabotage to nuclear signalling.", "tags": [ "conflict", "defence" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 6, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "middle-east-instability", "name": "Middle East instability", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Recurrent conflict from the Gulf to the Levant, with direct consequences for energy, shipping and displacement.", "tags": [ "conflict", "fossil" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 2, "S05": 6, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 6, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 6, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "cash-decline-and-payment-dependence", "name": "Cash decline & payment dependence", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "The retreat of cash and branches, leaving households and shops with no way to pay when power or networks fail.", "broken_out_from": "digital-payments-and-fintech", "tags": [ "digital-finance", "resilience" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 6, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 5, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "space-weather-exposure", "name": "Space weather exposure", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "The vulnerability of grids, satellites and navigation to a severe solar storm.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "power" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 5, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "building-codes-and-resilient-construction", "name": "Building codes & resilient construction", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Whether buildings and infrastructure are designed, and inspected, to withstand the hazards they face.", "tags": [ "cities", "resilience" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 6, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "rare-earth-processing-concentration", "name": "Rare earth processing concentration", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "The refining and magnet-making stages of rare earths held almost entirely by one country, and licensed as an instrument of policy.", "broken_out_from": "critical-minerals-supply", "tags": [ "materials", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "next-generation-mobile-networks", "name": "Next-generation mobile networks", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Fifth-generation networks reaching industry and infrastructure, and the sixth generation in research, as the carrier of connected devices and services.", "tags": [ "connectivity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "extended-reality-and-immersive-media", "name": "Extended reality & immersive media", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Virtual, augmented and mixed-reality hardware, content and persistent digital environments for work, commerce and entertainment.", "tags": [ "immersive", "consumer" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "crypto-assets-and-tokenisation", "name": "Crypto-assets & tokenisation", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Distributed ledgers, tokens and digital currencies moving from speculation towards regulated assets, tokenised securities and portable ownership records.", "tags": [ "digital-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 2, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ai-agents-and-knowledge-work-automation", "name": "AI agents & knowledge-work automation", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "AI systems carrying out multi-step professional tasks unsupervised, from assistants and recruitment to legal and compliance work, repricing knowledge work to the cost of inference.", "tags": [ "ai", "work-skills" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 6, "S14": 0, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "cloud-and-edge-computing", "name": "Cloud & edge computing", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Computing delivered from hyperscale clouds built for industry and from processors placed at the point where data is generated.", "tags": [ "compute", "connectivity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "smart-manufacturing-and-digital-twins", "name": "Smart manufacturing & digital twins", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Connected, data-driven factories and building sites, with live virtual replicas of assets and processes used to simulate and optimise them.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "connectivity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "robotics-and-automation", "name": "Robotics & automation", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Robots replacing manual tasks in factories, warehouses, delivery and services.", "tags": [ "robotics", "manufacturing" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 1, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "cyber-insecurity", "name": "Cyber insecurity", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "national-security", "description": "State, criminal and politically motivated attack on data, systems and critical infrastructure, increasingly AI-enabled, and the defence against it.", "tags": [ "cyber", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 5, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 6, "S13": 2, "S14": 1, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 4, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "alternative-proteins", "name": "Alternative proteins", "paradigm": "consumer-food-retail", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Protein from plants, insects, fermentation and cultivated cells as a lower-footprint substitute for animal farming.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "biotech" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "sustainable-consumption", "name": "Sustainable consumption", "paradigm": "consumer-food-retail", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Purchasing shaped by ethical, environmental and provenance concerns, and the regulation of what products contain and how long they last.", "tags": [ "consumer", "circular" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "access-over-ownership", "name": "Access over ownership", "paradigm": "consumer-food-retail", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Subscription, sharing and on-demand models replacing ownership of vehicles, goods, media and equipment.", "tags": [ "consumer", "mobility" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "retail-and-food-service-automation", "name": "Retail & food-service automation", "paradigm": "consumer-food-retail", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Checkout-free shops, dynamic pricing, dark kitchens and delivery platforms changing how food and goods reach households.", "tags": [ "consumer", "food-systems" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "drones-and-advanced-air-mobility", "name": "Drones & advanced air mobility", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Unmanned aircraft for delivery, inspection, agriculture and surveying, and electric vertical take-off aircraft for short passenger hops.", "tags": [ "robotics", "mobility" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "electric-transport", "name": "Electric transport", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Electrification of cars, fleets and two-wheelers with their charging networks, and vehicles used as flexible storage for the grid.", "tags": [ "mobility", "clean-energy" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "smart-cities-and-buildings", "name": "Smart cities & buildings", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Sensor-rich, digitally managed buildings and urban services improving mobility, energy use, safety and governance.", "tags": [ "cities", "connectivity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "digital-and-remote-care", "name": "Digital & remote care", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Consultation, monitoring and prevention delivered outside the clinic through connected devices, wearables and virtual access to clinicians.", "tags": [ "digital-health" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "ai-diagnostics-and-predictive-health", "name": "AI diagnostics & predictive health", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "AI reading scans, pathology and records to detect disease earlier and to anticipate risk before symptoms appear.", "tags": [ "digital-health", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "precision-medicine-and-oncology", "name": "Precision medicine & oncology", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Treatment tailored to an individual's genetics and biomarkers, led by advances in cancer detection and therapy.", "tags": [ "biotech" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 1 } }, { "id": "longevity-science", "name": "Longevity science", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Science and services aimed at extending healthy lifespan, from senolytics and clinics to self-directed optimisation.", "tags": [ "longevity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "mental-health", "name": "Mental health", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "The rising burden of mental and behavioural conditions and new routes to treatment, digital and pharmacological.", "tags": [ "health-systems" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 2, 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"digital-health", "robotics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "batteries-and-energy-storage", "name": "Batteries & energy storage", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Advances in battery chemistry, manufacture and recycling, and grid-scale and long-duration storage balancing variable generation.", "tags": [ "clean-energy", "power" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 4, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 4, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 6, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "hydrogen-and-low-carbon-fuels", "name": "Hydrogen & low-carbon fuels", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Low-carbon hydrogen, e-fuels, ammonia and advanced biofuels for the uses that electricity cannot reach.", "tags": [ "clean-energy" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "carbon-pricing-and-environmental-taxes", "name": "Carbon pricing & environmental taxes", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Carbon taxes, emissions trading and levies on plastic, landfill and pollution putting an explicit price on environmental harm.", "tags": [ "carbon" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 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0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 1, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 4, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "reshoring-and-localised-manufacturing", "name": "Reshoring & localised manufacturing", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Production moved closer to demand for resilience, enabled by automation, additive manufacturing and smaller plants.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 5, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "agricultural-technology", "name": "Agricultural technology", "paradigm": "consumer-food-retail", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Precision farming, robotics, sensing and controlled-environment growing that raise yields and cut water and inputs.", "tags": [ "food-systems" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 5, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 6, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "tax-base-erosion-and-global-tax-reform", "name": "Tax base erosion & global tax reform", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Revenue built on payroll and location slipping away as value moves to capital, platforms and other jurisdictions, and the coordinated attempts to tax it.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 6, "S14": 0, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 4, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "decline-of-independent-journalism", "name": "Decline of independent journalism", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Local and national newsrooms closing or captured, leaving fewer trusted sources when facts are contested.", "tags": [ "information", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 3, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "platform-power-over-public-discourse", "name": "Platform power over public discourse", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "A few private platforms and their recommendation systems deciding what billions see, beyond the reach of most governments.", "tags": [ "information", "data-governance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ai-mediated-information", "name": "AI-mediated information", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Chatbots and AI summaries becoming the first place people look, which moves the power to frame facts from publishers to model owners.", "broken_out_from": "misinformation-and-disinformation", "tags": [ "information", "ai" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 1, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "soft-power-and-cultural-influence", "name": "Soft power & cultural influence", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Competition for attraction through media, culture, education and brands, and state investment in it.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "information" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "transnational-repression-and-diaspora-politics", "name": "Transnational repression & diaspora politics", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "States reaching into other countries to intimidate critics, and diasporas becoming actors in the politics of both homes.", "tags": [ "politics", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 3, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "development-finance-as-influence", "name": "Development finance as influence", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Loans, infrastructure and aid used to win alignment, from the Belt and Road to Western and Gulf counter-offers.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 5, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "technical-standards-competition", "name": "Technical standards competition", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Rivalry over who writes the standards for telecoms, AI, energy and payments, which decides whose equipment the world runs on.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "research-security-and-science-decoupling", "name": "Research security & science decoupling", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Restrictions on research collaboration, students and data between rival blocs, and the cost to open science.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "work-skills" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "global-south-coalitions", "name": "Global South coalitions", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "BRICS enlargement and other groupings giving developing nations collective weight on finance, trade and climate.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 4, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "diplomatic-capacity-under-strain", "name": "Diplomatic capacity under strain", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Foreign services and negotiating bandwidth stretched thin as crises multiply and budgets shrink.", "tags": [ "institutions", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 3, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "conspiracy-movements-and-science-denial", "name": "Conspiracy movements & science denial", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Organised distrust of medicine, science and official accounts, which lowers compliance when it is needed most.", "tags": [ "information", "politics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 5 } }, { "id": "international-student-flows", "name": "International student flows", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Shifts in where students study abroad, shaped by visas, cost and geopolitics, and what that means for influence and talent.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "public-communication-in-crisis", "name": "Public communication in crisis", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "The ability of authorities to reach and be believed by the public in an emergency, including when networks are down.", "tags": [ "information", "resilience" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 4, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 5, "S11": 2, "S12": 5, "S13": 0, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 5 } }, { "id": "rule-of-law-and-judicial-independence", "name": "Rule of law & judicial independence", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Pressure on courts, prosecutors and legal constraint on power, and the consequences for contracts, rights and elections.", "tags": [ "institutions", "politics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 6, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "executive-overreach-and-emergency-powers", "name": "Executive overreach & emergency powers", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Governments ruling by decree or emergency measure, and the difficulty of returning powers once taken.", "tags": [ "politics", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 5, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "central-bank-independence-under-pressure", "name": "Central bank independence under pressure", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Political pressure on monetary authorities as debt, inflation and growth pull in different directions.", "tags": [ "institutions", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "public-procurement-reform", "name": "Public procurement reform", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "How governments buy: speed, openness and the capacity to purchase new technology and emergency supplies well.", "tags": [ "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 3, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "civil-service-capability-and-pay", "name": "Civil service capability & pay", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "The skills, pay and morale of public servants, and the state's ability to recruit technical talent.", "tags": [ "institutions", "work-skills" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 3, "S14": 3, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 4, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "official-statistics-and-data-capacity", "name": "Official statistics & data capacity", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "The quality and credibility of national data, on which budgets, health responses and creditors rely.", "tags": [ "institutions", "data-governance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 4, "S24": 3 } }, { "id": "local-and-city-government-capacity", "name": "Local & city government capacity", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "The resources and competence of municipal and regional authorities, which carry the first response to most shocks.", "tags": [ "institutions", "cities" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 5, "S09": 0, "S10": 5, "S11": 2, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 2 } }, { "id": "illicit-finance-and-beneficial-ownership", "name": "Illicit finance & beneficial ownership", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Hidden ownership, money laundering and sanctions evasion, and the registers and enforcement built against them.", "tags": [ "institutions", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "regulatory-capture-and-lobbying-power", "name": "Regulatory capture & lobbying power", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "The influence of concentrated industries over the rules that govern them.", "tags": [ "institutions", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 2, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "fiscal-rules-and-budget-credibility", "name": "Fiscal rules & budget credibility", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Whether a government's budget plans are believed, and the rules and institutions that make them so.", "tags": [ "institutions", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 5, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 4, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 2, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "friend-shoring-and-regional-trade-blocs", "name": "Friend-shoring & regional trade blocs", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Trade and investment redirected towards allies and neighbours, with supply chains rebuilt inside blocs.", "broken_out_from": "deglobalisation", "tags": [ "trade", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 5, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 0, "S20": 5, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "digital-and-services-trade", "name": "Digital & services trade", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Cross-border trade in software, data and professional services, and the rules on data flows that govern it.", "tags": [ "trade", "data-governance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 5, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "sovereign-wealth-and-state-capital", "name": "Sovereign wealth & state capital", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "State-owned funds and enterprises as investors and owners abroad, and state direction of capital at home.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 1, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "carbon-border-adjustments", "name": "Carbon border adjustments", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Charges on the carbon content of imports, which carry one jurisdiction's carbon price into others' trade.", "broken_out_from": "carbon-pricing-and-environmental-taxes", "tags": [ "carbon", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "foreign-direct-investment-slowdown", "name": "Foreign direct investment slowdown", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Falling cross-border investment, especially into developing economies, as risk and screening rise.", "tags": [ "trade", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 2, "S03": 3, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 2, "S20": 5, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "trade-finance-and-correspondent-banking-gaps", "name": "Trade finance & correspondent banking gaps", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Banks withdrawing from the relationships and credit that let smaller economies pay for imports.", "tags": [ "trade", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 5, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 2, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "commodity-price-volatility", "name": "Commodity price volatility", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Sharp swings in energy, food and metal prices, and the exposure of exporters and importers alike.", "tags": [ "trade", "fossil" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 4, "S05": 4, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 0, "S11": 5, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 4, "S21": 4, "S22": 4, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "infrastructure-corridor-competition", "name": "Infrastructure corridor competition", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Rival ports, railways and energy corridors financed to redirect trade and bind partners.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "logistics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 4, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 3, "S20": 4, "S21": 5, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "regional-trade-agreements", "name": "Regional trade agreements", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Deep agreements among willing partners, from the Pacific to the African continental area, as global rules stall.", "tags": [ "trade", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "militarisation-of-space", "name": "Militarisation of space", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Anti-satellite weapons, military constellations and the treatment of orbit as a contested domain.", "broken_out_from": "space-economy", "tags": [ "space-geo", "defence" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "terrorism-and-violent-extremism", "name": "Terrorism & violent extremism", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Attacks by non-state groups and radicalised individuals, and the online networks that recruit them.", "tags": [ "conflict", "politics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 3, "S07": 3, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "defence-industrial-base-and-munitions", "name": "Defence industrial base & munitions", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "The capacity to produce and replenish weapons and ammunition at the rate a long conflict consumes them.", "tags": [ "defence", "manufacturing" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 4, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 3, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "conscription-and-reserve-mobilisation", "name": "Conscription & reserve mobilisation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "The return of national service and larger reserves as armies struggle to recruit.", "tags": [ "defence", "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 1, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "private-military-and-proxy-forces", "name": "Private military & proxy forces", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "States acting through contractors, militias and proxies to keep conflict deniable.", "tags": [ "conflict", "defence" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 5, "S07": 3, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 5, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "espionage-and-insider-threat", "name": "Espionage & insider threat", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Theft of secrets and technology by rival states, through people as well as networks.", "tags": [ "conflict", "cyber" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 5, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "missile-and-long-range-strike-proliferation", "name": "Missile & long-range strike proliferation", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Cheap precision missiles and long-range drones putting ports, energy sites and cities within reach of more actors.", "tags": [ "defence", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 5, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 5, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "arctic-and-polar-competition", "name": "Arctic & polar competition", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "New sea routes and resources opening as ice retreats, and military positioning around them.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "indo-pacific-maritime-disputes", "name": "Indo-Pacific maritime disputes", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Contested waters and features in the South and East China Seas, astride the busiest trade routes.", "tags": [ "conflict", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 5, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "commercial-real-estate-stress", "name": "Commercial real estate stress", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Falling office and retail values and the lenders and pension funds exposed to them.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "cities" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "remittance-dependence", "name": "Remittance dependence", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Economies whose foreign exchange and household incomes rest on money sent home by workers abroad.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 2, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "climate-finance-and-loss-and-damage", "name": "Climate finance & loss and damage", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Who pays for transition, adaptation and climate damage in poorer nations, and how little of what is pledged arrives.", "tags": [ "climate", "debt-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 4, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 4, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "household-debt-and-housing-affordability", "name": "Household debt & housing affordability", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "High housing costs and mortgage debt, which leave households exposed to rates and jobs and shut the young out.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "learning-loss-and-education-quality", "name": "Learning loss & education quality", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Children leaving school without basic skills, deepened by closures and unequal provision.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 4, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 2 } }, { "id": "child-and-maternal-health", "name": "Child & maternal health", "paradigm": "health-modern-science", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Survival and health of mothers and young children, where progress has slowed as aid falls.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "demography" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 5, "S23": 0, "S24": 2 } }, { "id": "heat-stress-and-labour-productivity", "name": "Heat stress & labour productivity", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Working hours and health lost to extreme heat, heaviest in outdoor work and in cities without cooling.", "broken_out_from": "climate-change-and-physical-risk", "tags": [ "climate", "work-skills" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 2, "S10": 4, "S11": 3, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "informal-employment", "name": "Informal employment", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Work outside contracts, tax and social insurance, which leaves most workers in poorer nations beyond the reach of support.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 2, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 5, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "care-economy-and-unpaid-work", "name": "Care economy & unpaid work", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "The paid and unpaid care of children, the sick and the old, and who is left to provide it.", "tags": [ "demography", "inequality" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ai-chips-and-accelerator-supply", "name": "AI chips & accelerator supply", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "The specialised processors that train and run AI, designed by a few firms and made almost entirely in one place.", "broken_out_from": "advanced-semiconductors", "tags": [ "compute", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 4, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "lithography-and-chip-tool-chokepoints", "name": "Lithography & chip-tool chokepoints", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "The handful of suppliers of the machines and materials that make advanced chips, and the controls placed on them.", "broken_out_from": "advanced-semiconductors", "tags": [ "compute", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "post-quantum-cryptography-transition", "name": "Post-quantum cryptography transition", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Replacing the encryption that protects finance, government and infrastructure before quantum computers can break it.", "broken_out_from": "quantum-computing", "tags": [ "cyber", "compute" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "satellite-mega-constellations", "name": "Satellite mega-constellations", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Thousands of low-orbit satellites providing connectivity and imagery, owned by a few firms and states.", "broken_out_from": "space-economy", "tags": [ "space-geo", "connectivity" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "ai-accelerated-science", "name": "AI-accelerated science", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "AI systems speeding discovery in biology, materials and energy, shortening the path from hypothesis to result.", "broken_out_from": "artificial-intelligence", "tags": [ "ai", "biotech" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 6, "S16": 4, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 4, "S23": 0, "S24": 4 } }, { "id": "port-and-shipping-concentration", "name": "Port & shipping concentration", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "A few carriers, alliances and hub ports handling most world trade, so that one disruption spreads widely.", "tags": [ "logistics", "trade" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 5, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2, "S21": 3, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "telecom-network-resilience", "name": "Telecom network resilience", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Backup power, route diversity and repair capacity in mobile and fixed networks.", "tags": [ "connectivity", "resilience" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 4, "S11": 0, "S12": 6, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 4, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "fuel-logistics-and-refining-capacity", "name": "Fuel logistics & refining capacity", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Refineries, storage, pipelines and distribution, and how many days of fuel reach users when imports stop.", "tags": [ "fossil", "logistics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 6, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 3, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "dams-reservoirs-and-flood-defence", "name": "Dams, reservoirs & flood defence", "paradigm": "energy-environment", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "The condition and capacity of the structures that store water and hold back floods.", "tags": [ "water", "climate" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 5, "S11": 4, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 2, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "manufacturing-overcapacity", "name": "Manufacturing overcapacity", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Subsidised capacity in steel, solar, batteries and vehicles exported at prices that close plants elsewhere.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "geoeconomics" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 2, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "religious-and-identity-nationalism", "name": "Religious & identity nationalism", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Politics organised around faith, ethnicity and nation, at home and as an instrument of influence abroad.", "tags": [ "politics", "information" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 4, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "open-source-intelligence-and-transparency", "name": "Open-source intelligence & transparency", "paradigm": "technology-financials", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Commercial imagery, tracking data and online investigation that make concealment harder for states and firms alike.", "tags": [ "information", "space-geo" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 3, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "citizen-participation-and-deliberative-democracy", "name": "Citizen participation & deliberative democracy", "paradigm": "society-culture", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Assemblies, consultation and digital participation used to rebuild consent for hard decisions.", "tags": [ "politics", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 2, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "outsourcing-and-public-private-delivery", "name": "Outsourcing & public-private delivery", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Public services and infrastructure run by private contractors, and the state's capacity to manage them in a crisis.", "tags": [ "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "business-dynamism-and-start-up-formation", "name": "Business dynamism & start-up formation", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "The rate at which new firms form, grow and displace incumbents, which sets how fast an economy adopts new technology.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "work-skills" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 4, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 3, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "construction-productivity-and-housing-supply", "name": "Construction productivity & housing supply", "paradigm": "industrials-manufacturing-transportation", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "How fast and cheaply homes and infrastructure can be built, held back by flat productivity and planning.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "cities" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 3, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "bank-resilience-and-deposit-flight", "name": "Bank resilience & deposit flight", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "The stability of bank funding when deposits can leave in hours through a phone.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "digital-finance" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 6, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "sanctions-evasion-and-shadow-fleets", "name": "Sanctions evasion & shadow fleets", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Uninsured tankers, front companies and third-country routes that carry sanctioned oil and goods.", "broken_out_from": "export-controls-and-economic-statecraft", "tags": [ "trade", "conflict" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 4, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 4, "S22": 0, "S23": 0, "S24": 0 } }, { "id": "research-and-development-intensity", "name": "Research & development intensity", "paradigm": "geoeconomics-statecraft", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "How much nations and firms invest in research, and how quickly results reach production.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "institutions" ], "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 3, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0, "S21": 0, "S22": 3, "S23": 0, "S24": 3 } } ] }